Recent UK data show Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following 0.6% in Q1, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth near 0% in Q3 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks and subdued household and business confidence. Persistent services inflation near 3.6% and the MPC’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% signal caution over second-round price effects, while PMI readings and retail indicators point to weak momentum. These forces create a narrow band of outcomes around 0.2–0.5% QoQ, with downside risks from higher import prices and upside limited by soft domestic demand. The September 17 MPC meeting and September ONS flash estimates will provide key signals ahead of final Q3 data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 26%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 20%
0.0–0.1% 20%
$11,980 Vol.
$11,980 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
20%
0.0–0.1%
20%
0.2–0.3%
26%
0.4–0.5%
22%
0.6–0.7%
7%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
5%
0.2–0.3% 26%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 20%
0.0–0.1% 20%
$11,980 Vol.
$11,980 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$1,955 Vol.
20%
0.0–0.1%
$5,030 Vol.
20%
0.2–0.3%
$3,597 Vol.
26%
0.4–0.5%
$770 Vol.
22%
0.6–0.7%
$229 Vol.
7%
0.8–0.9%
$195 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$205 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK data show Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following 0.6% in Q1, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth near 0% in Q3 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks and subdued household and business confidence. Persistent services inflation near 3.6% and the MPC’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% signal caution over second-round price effects, while PMI readings and retail indicators point to weak momentum. These forces create a narrow band of outcomes around 0.2–0.5% QoQ, with downside risks from higher import prices and upside limited by soft domestic demand. The September 17 MPC meeting and September ONS flash estimates will provide key signals ahead of final Q3 data.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$11,980End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK data show Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following 0.6% in Q1, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth near 0% in Q3 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks and subdued household and business confidence. Persistent services inflation near 3.6% and the MPC’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% signal caution over second-round price effects, while PMI readings and retail indicators point to weak momentum. These forces create a narrow band of outcomes around 0.2–0.5% QoQ, with downside risks from higher import prices and upside limited by soft domestic demand. The September 17 MPC meeting and September ONS flash estimates will provide key signals ahead of final Q3 data.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,980End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK data show Q2 GDP expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following 0.6% in Q1, yet the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth near 0% in Q3 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price shocks and subdued household and business confidence. Persistent services inflation near 3.6% and the MPC’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% signal caution over second-round price effects, while PMI readings and retail indicators point to weak momentum. These forces create a narrow band of outcomes around 0.2–0.5% QoQ, with downside risks from higher import prices and upside limited by soft domestic demand. The September 17 MPC meeting and September ONS flash estimates will provide key signals ahead of final Q3 data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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