Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) faces moderating momentum after the stronger-than-expected 1.1% Q1 expansion, which was supported by robust household consumption and public spending. Traders price the 0.3%–0.5% outcome highest amid persistent high SELIC rates that have constrained credit and investment, alongside elevated inflation pressures that eroded real incomes. Recent central bank signals and leading indicators point to slower domestic demand, with external trade providing limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst, and market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of final data amid broader forecasts for 2026 growth near 1.6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 63.5%
0.0%–0.2% 21.4%
0.6%–0.8% 7.8%
<0.0% 1.1%
$58,322 Vol.
$58,322 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
21%
0.3%–0.5%
64%
0.6%–0.8%
8%
0.9%–1.1%
1%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 63.5%
0.0%–0.2% 21.4%
0.6%–0.8% 7.8%
<0.0% 1.1%
$58,322 Vol.
$58,322 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,716 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,983 Vol.
21%
0.3%–0.5%
$25,545 Vol.
64%
0.6%–0.8%
$15,988 Vol.
8%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,647 Vol.
1%
1.2%–1.4%
$3,253 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) faces moderating momentum after the stronger-than-expected 1.1% Q1 expansion, which was supported by robust household consumption and public spending. Traders price the 0.3%–0.5% outcome highest amid persistent high SELIC rates that have constrained credit and investment, alongside elevated inflation pressures that eroded real incomes. Recent central bank signals and leading indicators point to slower domestic demand, with external trade providing limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst, and market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of final data amid broader forecasts for 2026 growth near 1.6%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$58,322End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) faces moderating momentum after the stronger-than-expected 1.1% Q1 expansion, which was supported by robust household consumption and public spending. Traders price the 0.3%–0.5% outcome highest amid persistent high SELIC rates that have constrained credit and investment, alongside elevated inflation pressures that eroded real incomes. Recent central bank signals and leading indicators point to slower domestic demand, with external trade providing limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst, and market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of final data amid broader forecasts for 2026 growth near 1.6%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$58,322End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) faces moderating momentum after the stronger-than-expected 1.1% Q1 expansion, which was supported by robust household consumption and public spending. Traders price the 0.3%–0.5% outcome highest amid persistent high SELIC rates that have constrained credit and investment, alongside elevated inflation pressures that eroded real incomes. Recent central bank signals and leading indicators point to slower domestic demand, with external trade providing limited offset. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst, and market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of final data amid broader forecasts for 2026 growth near 1.6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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