Market participants assign the highest implied probability (50.2%) to 2026 IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% range, consistent with the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% released August 24. This projection has stabilized after six prior weeks of declines, remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the central bank’s 3% target band amid resilient services prices and fading food deflation. July’s 4.44% year-over-year reading and 0.07% monthly increase supported modest cooling, yet the Selic rate near 13.90% and subdued 1.95% GDP growth forecast underscore ongoing policy restraint. The distribution of adjacent buckets (4.50-4.99% at 23.1% and 5.50-5.99% at 20.3%) reflects uncertainty around upcoming monthly prints and potential fiscal or commodity-driven pressures through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 50.2%
4.50-4.99% 23.3%
5.50-5.99% 20.8%
4.00-4.49% 3.5%
$97,583 Vol.
$97,583 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
4%
4.50-4.99%
23%
5.00-5.49%
50%
5.50-5.99%
21%
6.00-6.49%
2%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
2%
5.00-5.49% 50.2%
4.50-4.99% 23.3%
5.50-5.99% 20.8%
4.00-4.49% 3.5%
$97,583 Vol.
$97,583 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,727 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,189 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$14,068 Vol.
4%
4.50-4.99%
$16,130 Vol.
23%
5.00-5.49%
$14,582 Vol.
50%
5.50-5.99%
$9,997 Vol.
21%
6.00-6.49%
$6,620 Vol.
2%
6.50-6.99%
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,799 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket participants assign the highest implied probability (50.2%) to 2026 IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% range, consistent with the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% released August 24. This projection has stabilized after six prior weeks of declines, remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the central bank’s 3% target band amid resilient services prices and fading food deflation. July’s 4.44% year-over-year reading and 0.07% monthly increase supported modest cooling, yet the Selic rate near 13.90% and subdued 1.95% GDP growth forecast underscore ongoing policy restraint. The distribution of adjacent buckets (4.50-4.99% at 23.1% and 5.50-5.99% at 20.3%) reflects uncertainty around upcoming monthly prints and potential fiscal or commodity-driven pressures through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$97,583End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket participants assign the highest implied probability (50.2%) to 2026 IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% range, consistent with the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% released August 24. This projection has stabilized after six prior weeks of declines, remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the central bank’s 3% target band amid resilient services prices and fading food deflation. July’s 4.44% year-over-year reading and 0.07% monthly increase supported modest cooling, yet the Selic rate near 13.90% and subdued 1.95% GDP growth forecast underscore ongoing policy restraint. The distribution of adjacent buckets (4.50-4.99% at 23.1% and 5.50-5.99% at 20.3%) reflects uncertainty around upcoming monthly prints and potential fiscal or commodity-driven pressures through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$97,583End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market participants assign the highest implied probability (50.2%) to 2026 IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% range, consistent with the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% released August 24. This projection has stabilized after six prior weeks of declines, remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the central bank’s 3% target band amid resilient services prices and fading food deflation. July’s 4.44% year-over-year reading and 0.07% monthly increase supported modest cooling, yet the Selic rate near 13.90% and subdued 1.95% GDP growth forecast underscore ongoing policy restraint. The distribution of adjacent buckets (4.50-4.99% at 23.1% and 5.50-5.99% at 20.3%) reflects uncertainty around upcoming monthly prints and potential fiscal or commodity-driven pressures through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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