Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet professional forecasters revised Q3 projections upward to 2.5% in the Philadelphia Fed’s August survey amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Elevated inflation near 3.3% core PCE, driven by tariffs, energy costs, and AI-related demand, alongside a stable but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, supports market-implied odds clustering around 2.0–3.0%. Traders appear to weigh potential upside from investment-led momentum against risks of further softening in payrolls or persistent price pressures ahead of the September CPI and FOMC meeting. These factors create competitive dynamics between moderate and stronger growth buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,341 Vol.
$23,341 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
4%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,341 Vol.
$23,341 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$565 Vol.
4%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,224 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$15,898 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet professional forecasters revised Q3 projections upward to 2.5% in the Philadelphia Fed’s August survey amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Elevated inflation near 3.3% core PCE, driven by tariffs, energy costs, and AI-related demand, alongside a stable but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, supports market-implied odds clustering around 2.0–3.0%. Traders appear to weigh potential upside from investment-led momentum against risks of further softening in payrolls or persistent price pressures ahead of the September CPI and FOMC meeting. These factors create competitive dynamics between moderate and stronger growth buckets.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,341End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet professional forecasters revised Q3 projections upward to 2.5% in the Philadelphia Fed’s August survey amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Elevated inflation near 3.3% core PCE, driven by tariffs, energy costs, and AI-related demand, alongside a stable but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, supports market-implied odds clustering around 2.0–3.0%. Traders appear to weigh potential upside from investment-led momentum against risks of further softening in payrolls or persistent price pressures ahead of the September CPI and FOMC meeting. These factors create competitive dynamics between moderate and stronger growth buckets.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,341End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of just 1.5% annualized has tempered expectations, yet professional forecasters revised Q3 projections upward to 2.5% in the Philadelphia Fed’s August survey amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. Elevated inflation near 3.3% core PCE, driven by tariffs, energy costs, and AI-related demand, alongside a stable but cooling labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, supports market-implied odds clustering around 2.0–3.0%. Traders appear to weigh potential upside from investment-led momentum against risks of further softening in payrolls or persistent price pressures ahead of the September CPI and FOMC meeting. These factors create competitive dynamics between moderate and stronger growth buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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