Recent July data showing industrial output slowing to 4.5% YoY, retail sales rising just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracting 6.7% year-to-date have weighed on Q3 momentum, with Goldman Sachs estimating early-quarter growth near 4% amid demand-driven weakness. This has tightened the contest between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands, which together capture 77.5% of market-implied odds. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing gains, and signals from the July Politburo meeting for expanded domestic-demand support and fiscal measures provide counterbalance, while Q2’s 4.3% print and declining Conference Board LEI underscore downside risks from the property sector and tepid consumption. Traders are pricing in modest policy offsets without assuming aggressive stimulus sufficient to lift growth above 4.9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 42%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 22.1%
4.9-5.2% 4.0%
$29,466 Vol.
$29,466 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
22%
4.3-4.6%
42%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
4%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 42%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 22.1%
4.9-5.2% 4.0%
$29,466 Vol.
$29,466 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,049 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,037 Vol.
22%
4.3-4.6%
$11,530 Vol.
42%
4.6-4.9%
$8,398 Vol.
36%
4.9-5.2%
$2,960 Vol.
4%
5.2-5.5%
$971 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,117 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July data showing industrial output slowing to 4.5% YoY, retail sales rising just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracting 6.7% year-to-date have weighed on Q3 momentum, with Goldman Sachs estimating early-quarter growth near 4% amid demand-driven weakness. This has tightened the contest between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands, which together capture 77.5% of market-implied odds. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing gains, and signals from the July Politburo meeting for expanded domestic-demand support and fiscal measures provide counterbalance, while Q2’s 4.3% print and declining Conference Board LEI underscore downside risks from the property sector and tepid consumption. Traders are pricing in modest policy offsets without assuming aggressive stimulus sufficient to lift growth above 4.9%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$29,466End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July data showing industrial output slowing to 4.5% YoY, retail sales rising just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracting 6.7% year-to-date have weighed on Q3 momentum, with Goldman Sachs estimating early-quarter growth near 4% amid demand-driven weakness. This has tightened the contest between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands, which together capture 77.5% of market-implied odds. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing gains, and signals from the July Politburo meeting for expanded domestic-demand support and fiscal measures provide counterbalance, while Q2’s 4.3% print and declining Conference Board LEI underscore downside risks from the property sector and tepid consumption. Traders are pricing in modest policy offsets without assuming aggressive stimulus sufficient to lift growth above 4.9%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$29,466End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July data showing industrial output slowing to 4.5% YoY, retail sales rising just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracting 6.7% year-to-date have weighed on Q3 momentum, with Goldman Sachs estimating early-quarter growth near 4% amid demand-driven weakness. This has tightened the contest between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands, which together capture 77.5% of market-implied odds. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing gains, and signals from the July Politburo meeting for expanded domestic-demand support and fiscal measures provide counterbalance, while Q2’s 4.3% print and declining Conference Board LEI underscore downside risks from the property sector and tepid consumption. Traders are pricing in modest policy offsets without assuming aggressive stimulus sufficient to lift growth above 4.9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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