Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, has anchored trader sentiment toward modest or flat outcomes for the Q3 annualized figure. Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate held at 1% and core inflation forecasts above the 2% target from late fiscal 2026, is tightening financial conditions and pressuring real wages. Offsetting supports include sustained spring wage gains near 5.5%, AI-driven export demand, and moderate global growth spillovers, though elevated oil prices and household cost pressures introduce downside risks. With the leading 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% bins closely matched, markets reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before the September data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0%–0.8% 30%
0.8%–1.6% 24%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
-1.6%– -0.8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
5%
-2.4%– -1.6%
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
15%
-0.8%–0.0%
21%
0.0%–0.8%
30%
0.8%–1.6%
24%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
2%
3.2%–4.0%
5%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 30%
0.8%–1.6% 24%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
-1.6%– -0.8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$80 Vol.
5%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,798 Vol.
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$105 Vol.
15%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,133 Vol.
21%
0.0%–0.8%
$680 Vol.
30%
0.8%–1.6%
$166 Vol.
24%
1.6%–2.4%
$80 Vol.
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$1,918 Vol.
2%
3.2%–4.0%
$725 Vol.
5%
4.0%+
$365 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, has anchored trader sentiment toward modest or flat outcomes for the Q3 annualized figure. Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate held at 1% and core inflation forecasts above the 2% target from late fiscal 2026, is tightening financial conditions and pressuring real wages. Offsetting supports include sustained spring wage gains near 5.5%, AI-driven export demand, and moderate global growth spillovers, though elevated oil prices and household cost pressures introduce downside risks. With the leading 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% bins closely matched, markets reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before the September data release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,049End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, has anchored trader sentiment toward modest or flat outcomes for the Q3 annualized figure. Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate held at 1% and core inflation forecasts above the 2% target from late fiscal 2026, is tightening financial conditions and pressuring real wages. Offsetting supports include sustained spring wage gains near 5.5%, AI-driven export demand, and moderate global growth spillovers, though elevated oil prices and household cost pressures introduce downside risks. With the leading 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% bins closely matched, markets reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before the September data release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$8,049End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth, below expectations amid flat private consumption and declining capital expenditure, has anchored trader sentiment toward modest or flat outcomes for the Q3 annualized figure. Bank of Japan policy normalization, with the policy rate held at 1% and core inflation forecasts above the 2% target from late fiscal 2026, is tightening financial conditions and pressuring real wages. Offsetting supports include sustained spring wage gains near 5.5%, AI-driven export demand, and moderate global growth spillovers, though elevated oil prices and household cost pressures introduce downside risks. With the leading 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% bins closely matched, markets reflect uncertainty over whether domestic demand can stabilize before the September data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions