Recent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by July 2026 nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations near +80,000–85,000, has compressed trader-implied probabilities toward modest or flat August gains. Downward revisions to May and June data reduced the trailing twelve-month average to just 34,000, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% amid falling labor-force participation. Mixed signals from the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which rose 0.2% in July, and expectations of immigration-related labor-supply constraints further temper optimism for a strong rebound. With the August employment report scheduled for early September, markets continue to price in elevated uncertainty around the 0–100k range as the dominant outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 – 50k 26%
50k – 100k 26%
-50k – 0 13%
100k – 150k 12.5%
$14,761 Vol.
$14,761 Vol.
<-50k
6%
-50k – 0
13%
0 – 50k
26%
50k – 100k
26%
100k – 150k
13%
150k+
11%
0 – 50k 26%
50k – 100k 26%
-50k – 0 13%
100k – 150k 12.5%
$14,761 Vol.
$14,761 Vol.
<-50k
6%
-50k – 0
13%
0 – 50k
26%
50k – 100k
26%
100k – 150k
13%
150k+
11%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by July 2026 nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 against consensus expectations near +80,000–85,000, has compressed trader-implied probabilities toward modest or flat August gains. Downward revisions to May and June data reduced the trailing twelve-month average to just 34,000, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% amid falling labor-force participation. Mixed signals from the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which rose 0.2% in July, and expectations of immigration-related labor-supply constraints further temper optimism for a strong rebound. With the August employment report scheduled for early September, markets continue to price in elevated uncertainty around the 0–100k range as the dominant outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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