Trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate centers on a closely contested range between 4.1% and 4.2%, which together command over 60% of market-implied odds amid signs of gradual labor market cooling. Recent data on moderating nonfarm payroll growth, steady initial jobless claims, and mixed ADP private employment figures have compressed expectations around these levels without signaling a sharp downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate keeps focus on employment trends relative to inflation metrics, while upcoming BLS revisions and the September employment report itself remain key swing factors that could reprice probabilities if results deviate from consensus forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.2% 33%
4.1% 30%
4.3% 17%
4.0% 13%
$18,527 Vol.
$18,527 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
4%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
30%
4.2%
33%
4.3%
17%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
4%
4.2% 33%
4.1% 30%
4.3% 17%
4.0% 13%
$18,527 Vol.
$18,527 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$519 Vol.
1%
3.9%
$732 Vol.
4%
4.0%
$2,130 Vol.
13%
4.1%
$6,195 Vol.
30%
4.2%
$4,042 Vol.
33%
4.3%
$3,283 Vol.
17%
4.4%
$657 Vol.
2%
4.5%
$468 Vol.
3%
≥4.6%
$499 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate centers on a closely contested range between 4.1% and 4.2%, which together command over 60% of market-implied odds amid signs of gradual labor market cooling. Recent data on moderating nonfarm payroll growth, steady initial jobless claims, and mixed ADP private employment figures have compressed expectations around these levels without signaling a sharp downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate keeps focus on employment trends relative to inflation metrics, while upcoming BLS revisions and the September employment report itself remain key swing factors that could reprice probabilities if results deviate from consensus forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$18,527End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate centers on a closely contested range between 4.1% and 4.2%, which together command over 60% of market-implied odds amid signs of gradual labor market cooling. Recent data on moderating nonfarm payroll growth, steady initial jobless claims, and mixed ADP private employment figures have compressed expectations around these levels without signaling a sharp downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate keeps focus on employment trends relative to inflation metrics, while upcoming BLS revisions and the September employment report itself remain key swing factors that could reprice probabilities if results deviate from consensus forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,527End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the August unemployment rate centers on a closely contested range between 4.1% and 4.2%, which together command over 60% of market-implied odds amid signs of gradual labor market cooling. Recent data on moderating nonfarm payroll growth, steady initial jobless claims, and mixed ADP private employment figures have compressed expectations around these levels without signaling a sharp downturn. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate keeps focus on employment trends relative to inflation metrics, while upcoming BLS revisions and the September employment report itself remain key swing factors that could reprice probabilities if results deviate from consensus forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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