The near-even split between ≤1.9% (49.4%) and 2.0-2.4% (48.5%) for Japan core CPI YoY in 2026 stems primarily from government energy subsidies that have capped recent readings, including the July 2026 core ex-fresh food increase of 1.8% YoY and core-core at 1.9%. These measures, alongside a new base year, have held underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for months despite yen-driven import costs and Middle East-related oil pressures. The BOJ’s July Outlook lowered its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5%, citing subsidy effects, while analysts anticipate re-acceleration into the 2-3% range later in the year as subsidies fade. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty around the timing and extent of cost pass-through versus policy support ahead of the September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≤1.9% 49.4%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 3.2%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,554 Vol.
$38,554 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
49%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 49.4%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 3.2%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,554 Vol.
$38,554 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,313 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,751 Vol.
49%
2.5-2.9%
$5,372 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,488 Vol.
3%
3.5-3.9%
$1,253 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.The near-even split between ≤1.9% (49.4%) and 2.0-2.4% (48.5%) for Japan core CPI YoY in 2026 stems primarily from government energy subsidies that have capped recent readings, including the July 2026 core ex-fresh food increase of 1.8% YoY and core-core at 1.9%. These measures, alongside a new base year, have held underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for months despite yen-driven import costs and Middle East-related oil pressures. The BOJ’s July Outlook lowered its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5%, citing subsidy effects, while analysts anticipate re-acceleration into the 2-3% range later in the year as subsidies fade. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty around the timing and extent of cost pass-through versus policy support ahead of the September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent meeting.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$38,554End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.The near-even split between ≤1.9% (49.4%) and 2.0-2.4% (48.5%) for Japan core CPI YoY in 2026 stems primarily from government energy subsidies that have capped recent readings, including the July 2026 core ex-fresh food increase of 1.8% YoY and core-core at 1.9%. These measures, alongside a new base year, have held underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for months despite yen-driven import costs and Middle East-related oil pressures. The BOJ’s July Outlook lowered its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5%, citing subsidy effects, while analysts anticipate re-acceleration into the 2-3% range later in the year as subsidies fade. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty around the timing and extent of cost pass-through versus policy support ahead of the September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent meeting.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$38,554End Date
Jan 22, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-even split between ≤1.9% (49.4%) and 2.0-2.4% (48.5%) for Japan core CPI YoY in 2026 stems primarily from government energy subsidies that have capped recent readings, including the July 2026 core ex-fresh food increase of 1.8% YoY and core-core at 1.9%. These measures, alongside a new base year, have held underlying inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for months despite yen-driven import costs and Middle East-related oil pressures. The BOJ’s July Outlook lowered its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.5%, citing subsidy effects, while analysts anticipate re-acceleration into the 2-3% range later in the year as subsidies fade. The closely matched odds underscore uncertainty around the timing and extent of cost pass-through versus policy support ahead of the September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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