Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a postwar-record supermajority in the February 2026 lower-house election after dissolving the Diet in late January, giving the ruling bloc decisive control through at least 2028. With the next scheduled poll not due until 2030 and no immediate procedural or coalition pressures, traders assign only a 4.5% chance of another dissolution this year. Recent polling shows declining cabinet support tied to economic pressures, yet the legislative cushion and standard four-year term norms reduce incentives for an early call. Late-year developments such as a sharp further erosion in approval ratings, major scandals, or an unforeseen crisis requiring a fresh mandate remain the main variables that could alter the current trader consensus.