The 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting stems primarily from the central bank's deliberate, data-dependent normalization after the June 25 basis point hike that lifted the policy rate to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995. The July meeting delivered a widely expected hold by an 8-1 vote, with the board highlighting balanced risks to activity, the need to monitor yen movements and AI-driven demand effects, and a modest downward revision to the FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% amid government energy subsidies. This cautious stance aligns with trader consensus favoring gradual tightening, as reflected in the 20.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase and minimal pricing for larger moves or cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 meeting for potential hawkish signals, fresh inflation and wage data, and yen volatility that could influence the pace toward the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,712 Vol.
$46,712 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase 2.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,712 Vol.
$46,712 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,810 Vol.
<1%
No change
$23,968 Vol.
77%
25 bps increase
$14,324 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$2,969 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting stems primarily from the central bank's deliberate, data-dependent normalization after the June 25 basis point hike that lifted the policy rate to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995. The July meeting delivered a widely expected hold by an 8-1 vote, with the board highlighting balanced risks to activity, the need to monitor yen movements and AI-driven demand effects, and a modest downward revision to the FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% amid government energy subsidies. This cautious stance aligns with trader consensus favoring gradual tightening, as reflected in the 20.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase and minimal pricing for larger moves or cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 meeting for potential hawkish signals, fresh inflation and wage data, and yen volatility that could influence the pace toward the 2% target.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$46,712End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting stems primarily from the central bank's deliberate, data-dependent normalization after the June 25 basis point hike that lifted the policy rate to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995. The July meeting delivered a widely expected hold by an 8-1 vote, with the board highlighting balanced risks to activity, the need to monitor yen movements and AI-driven demand effects, and a modest downward revision to the FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% amid government energy subsidies. This cautious stance aligns with trader consensus favoring gradual tightening, as reflected in the 20.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase and minimal pricing for larger moves or cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 meeting for potential hawkish signals, fresh inflation and wage data, and yen volatility that could influence the pace toward the 2% target.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$46,712End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan's October policy meeting stems primarily from the central bank's deliberate, data-dependent normalization after the June 25 basis point hike that lifted the policy rate to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995. The July meeting delivered a widely expected hold by an 8-1 vote, with the board highlighting balanced risks to activity, the need to monitor yen movements and AI-driven demand effects, and a modest downward revision to the FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% amid government energy subsidies. This cautious stance aligns with trader consensus favoring gradual tightening, as reflected in the 20.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase and minimal pricing for larger moves or cuts. Key near-term catalysts include the September 17-18 meeting for potential hawkish signals, fresh inflation and wage data, and yen volatility that could influence the pace toward the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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