**Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because Zehut and Amcha Yisrael remain on separate electoral paths with no confirmed joint list as the October 27, 2026 Knesset election approaches and party-list deadlines near.** Amcha Yisrael, launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, has quickly polled between 4–8 seats in multiple surveys and positions itself to join a broad Zionist government. Zehut, led by Moshe Feiglin and already allied with Michael Ben-Ari since May 2026, consistently polls below the 3.25% threshold (1.3–1.7%) and shows no active merger talks with Winter. Although Feiglin briefly expressed interest in an Amcha alliance, he later denied it, and reports confirm the parties are preparing independent slates. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged smaller right-wing factions to consolidate to avoid wasted votes, yet no such arrangement has materialized between these two. With distinct candidate lists already circulating and little time left for negotiations, the absence of any binding agreement underpins the strong trader consensus against a joint run.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because Zehut and Amcha Yisrael remain on separate electoral paths with no confirmed joint list as the October 27, 2026 Knesset election approaches and party-list deadlines near.**
Amcha Yisrael, launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, has quickly polled between 4–8 seats in multiple surveys and positions itself to join a broad Zionist government. Zehut, led by Moshe Feiglin and already allied with Michael Ben-Ari since May 2026, consistently polls below the 3.25% threshold (1.3–1.7%) and shows no active merger talks with Winter.
Although Feiglin briefly expressed interest in an Amcha alliance, he later denied it, and reports confirm the parties are preparing independent slates. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged smaller right-wing factions to consolidate to avoid wasted votes, yet no such arrangement has materialized between these two. With distinct candidate lists already circulating and little time left for negotiations, the absence of any binding agreement underpins the strong trader consensus against a joint run.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because Zehut and Amcha Yisrael remain on separate electoral paths with no confirmed joint list as the October 27, 2026 Knesset election approaches and party-list deadlines near.**
Amcha Yisrael, launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, has quickly polled between 4–8 seats in multiple surveys and positions itself to join a broad Zionist government. Zehut, led by Moshe Feiglin and already allied with Michael Ben-Ari since May 2026, consistently polls below the 3.25% threshold (1.3–1.7%) and shows no active merger talks with Winter.
Although Feiglin briefly expressed interest in an Amcha alliance, he later denied it, and reports confirm the parties are preparing independent slates. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged smaller right-wing factions to consolidate to avoid wasted votes, yet no such arrangement has materialized between these two. With distinct candidate lists already circulating and little time left for negotiations, the absence of any binding agreement underpins the strong trader consensus against a joint run.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because Zehut and Amcha Yisrael remain on separate electoral paths with no confirmed joint list as the October 27, 2026 Knesset election approaches and party-list deadlines near.** Amcha Yisrael, launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, has quickly polled between 4–8 seats in multiple surveys and positions itself to join a broad Zionist government. Zehut, led by Moshe Feiglin and already allied with Michael Ben-Ari since May 2026, consistently polls below the 3.25% threshold (1.3–1.7%) and shows no active merger talks with Winter. Although Feiglin briefly expressed interest in an Amcha alliance, he later denied it, and reports confirm the parties are preparing independent slates. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged smaller right-wing factions to consolidate to avoid wasted votes, yet no such arrangement has materialized between these two. With distinct candidate lists already circulating and little time left for negotiations, the absence of any binding agreement underpins the strong trader consensus against a joint run.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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