**Both Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party and Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit have publicly ruled out another joint electoral list for Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.** Smotrich stated in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview that his party can and should run independently as a strong, sectoral Religious Zionist force, citing its recent performance in government and rejecting Ben-Gvir as a partner. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly said the same since at least June 2026, arguing the parties draw from distinct voter bases—one more narrowly religious-Zionist and the other broader nationalist—and that separate runs maximize total right-wing seats. Recent polling reinforces this positioning: Religious Zionist hovers near or below the 3.25% threshold (projected 4–5 seats or none), while Otzma Yehudit polls more robustly (around 8–10 seats). The parties ran jointly in 2022 but have since operated as separate Knesset factions and conducted independent primaries or planning for 2026. Netanyahu has encouraged consolidation to protect the bloc, yet both leaders’ statements and strategic calculations make a renewed alliance unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated23% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
23% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Both Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party and Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit have publicly ruled out another joint electoral list for Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.**
Smotrich stated in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview that his party can and should run independently as a strong, sectoral Religious Zionist force, citing its recent performance in government and rejecting Ben-Gvir as a partner. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly said the same since at least June 2026, arguing the parties draw from distinct voter bases—one more narrowly religious-Zionist and the other broader nationalist—and that separate runs maximize total right-wing seats.
Recent polling reinforces this positioning: Religious Zionist hovers near or below the 3.25% threshold (projected 4–5 seats or none), while Otzma Yehudit polls more robustly (around 8–10 seats). The parties ran jointly in 2022 but have since operated as separate Knesset factions and conducted independent primaries or planning for 2026. Netanyahu has encouraged consolidation to protect the bloc, yet both leaders’ statements and strategic calculations make a renewed alliance unlikely.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$1,690End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Both Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party and Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit have publicly ruled out another joint electoral list for Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.**
Smotrich stated in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview that his party can and should run independently as a strong, sectoral Religious Zionist force, citing its recent performance in government and rejecting Ben-Gvir as a partner. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly said the same since at least June 2026, arguing the parties draw from distinct voter bases—one more narrowly religious-Zionist and the other broader nationalist—and that separate runs maximize total right-wing seats.
Recent polling reinforces this positioning: Religious Zionist hovers near or below the 3.25% threshold (projected 4–5 seats or none), while Otzma Yehudit polls more robustly (around 8–10 seats). The parties ran jointly in 2022 but have since operated as separate Knesset factions and conducted independent primaries or planning for 2026. Netanyahu has encouraged consolidation to protect the bloc, yet both leaders’ statements and strategic calculations make a renewed alliance unlikely.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$1,690End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Both Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party and Itamar Ben-Gvir of Otzma Yehudit have publicly ruled out another joint electoral list for Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.** Smotrich stated in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview that his party can and should run independently as a strong, sectoral Religious Zionist force, citing its recent performance in government and rejecting Ben-Gvir as a partner. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly said the same since at least June 2026, arguing the parties draw from distinct voter bases—one more narrowly religious-Zionist and the other broader nationalist—and that separate runs maximize total right-wing seats. Recent polling reinforces this positioning: Religious Zionist hovers near or below the 3.25% threshold (projected 4–5 seats or none), while Otzma Yehudit polls more robustly (around 8–10 seats). The parties ran jointly in 2022 but have since operated as separate Knesset factions and conducted independent primaries or planning for 2026. Netanyahu has encouraged consolidation to protect the bloc, yet both leaders’ statements and strategic calculations make a renewed alliance unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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