Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains closely divided in final polling, with yes and no sides separated by just a few points and notable undecided voters, making mobilization and participation rates decisive for the outcome. Historical referendum turnout has varied widely—from the low 49% in 2012 to over 75% in earlier votes—while recent parliamentary elections have exceeded 80%, leaving traders uncertain whether the single-issue ballot on fisheries sovereignty, EEA status, and geopolitical alignment will drive high engagement or suppress it amid the narrow stakes. Regional divides, with stronger support in the capital, and last-minute campaign efforts further contribute to dispersed expectations across the 45–85% turnout bins, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of variable voter intensity ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated75–80% 27%
60–65% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
24%
45–50%
24%
50–55%
25%
55–60%
25%
60–65%
26%
65–70%
26%
70–75%
26%
75–80%
27%
80–85%
25%
85%+
11%
75–80% 27%
60–65% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$0 Vol.
24%
45–50%
$0 Vol.
24%
50–55%
$0 Vol.
25%
55–60%
$0 Vol.
25%
60–65%
$0 Vol.
26%
65–70%
$0 Vol.
26%
70–75%
$0 Vol.
26%
75–80%
$0 Vol.
27%
80–85%
$0 Vol.
25%
85%+
$0 Vol.
11%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains closely divided in final polling, with yes and no sides separated by just a few points and notable undecided voters, making mobilization and participation rates decisive for the outcome. Historical referendum turnout has varied widely—from the low 49% in 2012 to over 75% in earlier votes—while recent parliamentary elections have exceeded 80%, leaving traders uncertain whether the single-issue ballot on fisheries sovereignty, EEA status, and geopolitical alignment will drive high engagement or suppress it amid the narrow stakes. Regional divides, with stronger support in the capital, and last-minute campaign efforts further contribute to dispersed expectations across the 45–85% turnout bins, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of variable voter intensity ahead of resolution.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains closely divided in final polling, with yes and no sides separated by just a few points and notable undecided voters, making mobilization and participation rates decisive for the outcome. Historical referendum turnout has varied widely—from the low 49% in 2012 to over 75% in earlier votes—while recent parliamentary elections have exceeded 80%, leaving traders uncertain whether the single-issue ballot on fisheries sovereignty, EEA status, and geopolitical alignment will drive high engagement or suppress it amid the narrow stakes. Regional divides, with stronger support in the capital, and last-minute campaign efforts further contribute to dispersed expectations across the 45–85% turnout bins, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of variable voter intensity ahead of resolution.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks remains closely divided in final polling, with yes and no sides separated by just a few points and notable undecided voters, making mobilization and participation rates decisive for the outcome. Historical referendum turnout has varied widely—from the low 49% in 2012 to over 75% in earlier votes—while recent parliamentary elections have exceeded 80%, leaving traders uncertain whether the single-issue ballot on fisheries sovereignty, EEA status, and geopolitical alignment will drive high engagement or suppress it amid the narrow stakes. Regional divides, with stronger support in the capital, and last-minute campaign efforts further contribute to dispersed expectations across the 45–85% turnout bins, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of variable voter intensity ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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