Recent polling shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) holding steady at 13-16% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with stronger support concentrated in the Quebec City region. Under first-past-the-post rules, this regional concentration creates high uncertainty in seat translation, keeping projections for PCQ seats tightly contested between single digits and the mid-teens. Traders weigh the party's platform emphasis on spending cuts and leader Éric Duhaime's targeted campaigning against the multi-party fragmentation that could limit breakthroughs or produce vote efficiency gains. A strong Quebec City performance or shifts among francophone voters could separate outcomes toward 11-16 seats, while weaker turnout or competition from the CAQ and PQ might cap results below five. The current spread reflects these variables in a five-party race with limited historical precedent for PCQ gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<5 39%
5-7 39%
14-16 39%
8-10 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
39%
5-7
39%
8-10
38%
11-13
38%
14-16
39%
17+
25%
<5 39%
5-7 39%
14-16 39%
8-10 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
39%
5-7
$0 Vol.
39%
8-10
$0 Vol.
38%
11-13
$0 Vol.
38%
14-16
$0 Vol.
39%
17+
$0 Vol.
25%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) holding steady at 13-16% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with stronger support concentrated in the Quebec City region. Under first-past-the-post rules, this regional concentration creates high uncertainty in seat translation, keeping projections for PCQ seats tightly contested between single digits and the mid-teens. Traders weigh the party's platform emphasis on spending cuts and leader Éric Duhaime's targeted campaigning against the multi-party fragmentation that could limit breakthroughs or produce vote efficiency gains. A strong Quebec City performance or shifts among francophone voters could separate outcomes toward 11-16 seats, while weaker turnout or competition from the CAQ and PQ might cap results below five. The current spread reflects these variables in a five-party race with limited historical precedent for PCQ gains.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) holding steady at 13-16% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with stronger support concentrated in the Quebec City region. Under first-past-the-post rules, this regional concentration creates high uncertainty in seat translation, keeping projections for PCQ seats tightly contested between single digits and the mid-teens. Traders weigh the party's platform emphasis on spending cuts and leader Éric Duhaime's targeted campaigning against the multi-party fragmentation that could limit breakthroughs or produce vote efficiency gains. A strong Quebec City performance or shifts among francophone voters could separate outcomes toward 11-16 seats, while weaker turnout or competition from the CAQ and PQ might cap results below five. The current spread reflects these variables in a five-party race with limited historical precedent for PCQ gains.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) holding steady at 13-16% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with stronger support concentrated in the Quebec City region. Under first-past-the-post rules, this regional concentration creates high uncertainty in seat translation, keeping projections for PCQ seats tightly contested between single digits and the mid-teens. Traders weigh the party's platform emphasis on spending cuts and leader Éric Duhaime's targeted campaigning against the multi-party fragmentation that could limit breakthroughs or produce vote efficiency gains. A strong Quebec City performance or shifts among francophone voters could separate outcomes toward 11-16 seats, while weaker turnout or competition from the CAQ and PQ might cap results below five. The current spread reflects these variables in a five-party race with limited historical precedent for PCQ gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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