Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41-43% ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, ahead of the CDU near 23%. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the AfD 38-41 of 83 seats, short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Smaller parties including the SPD, Greens, and FDP remain near or below the 5% threshold, which could shift proportional allocations but has not yet produced consistent majority forecasts in models. No major late-campaign events have altered the stable trend in recent weeks, leaving the outcome dependent on final turnout and smaller-party viability. Trader consensus on the low likelihood of an outright AfD majority aligns with these consistent seat math indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
35% chance
$380,664 Vol.
$380,664 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
35% chance
$380,664 Vol.
$380,664 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41-43% ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, ahead of the CDU near 23%. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the AfD 38-41 of 83 seats, short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Smaller parties including the SPD, Greens, and FDP remain near or below the 5% threshold, which could shift proportional allocations but has not yet produced consistent majority forecasts in models. No major late-campaign events have altered the stable trend in recent weeks, leaving the outcome dependent on final turnout and smaller-party viability. Trader consensus on the low likelihood of an outright AfD majority aligns with these consistent seat math indicators.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$380,664End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41-43% ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, ahead of the CDU near 23%. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the AfD 38-41 of 83 seats, short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Smaller parties including the SPD, Greens, and FDP remain near or below the 5% threshold, which could shift proportional allocations but has not yet produced consistent majority forecasts in models. No major late-campaign events have altered the stable trend in recent weeks, leaving the outcome dependent on final turnout and smaller-party viability. Trader consensus on the low likelihood of an outright AfD majority aligns with these consistent seat math indicators.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$380,664End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41-43% ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt, ahead of the CDU near 23%. Seat projections from these surveys typically allocate the AfD 38-41 of 83 seats, short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Smaller parties including the SPD, Greens, and FDP remain near or below the 5% threshold, which could shift proportional allocations but has not yet produced consistent majority forecasts in models. No major late-campaign events have altered the stable trend in recent weeks, leaving the outcome dependent on final turnout and smaller-party viability. Trader consensus on the low likelihood of an outright AfD majority aligns with these consistent seat math indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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