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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

$274,766 Vol.

Aug 17, 2026
Polymarket

$274,766 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson

$20,299 Vol.

100%

icon for Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson

$6,972 Vol.

92%

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Treg Taylor

$69,493 Vol.

12%

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Destry J. Payne Sr.

$1,840 Vol.

8%

icon for Lesil McGuire

Lesil McGuire

$409 Vol.

3%

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Click Bishop

$43,538 Vol.

3%

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Shelley Hughes

$3,290 Vol.

3%

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James Parkin

$2,971 Vol.

2%

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Bruce Walden

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2%

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Adam Crum

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1%

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Hank Kroll

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1%

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Matt Heilala

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1%

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Bill Walker

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<1%

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Jessica Faircloth

$357 Vol.

<1%

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Nancy Dahlstrom

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Edna DeVries

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Gregg Brelsford

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The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.**Two Democrats and two Republicans currently lead partial results from Alaska’s August 18 top-four open primary for governor.** With roughly 80% of votes counted, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) and Tom Begich (D) hold the top two spots at 21.6% and 20.1%, respectively, while Republican Bernadette Wilson sits third at 10.4% and Dave Bronson fourth at 8.4%. The next two Republicans, Treg Taylor and Click Bishop, trail at 7.4% and 7.2%. Alaska’s system places all 17 candidates on a single ballot; the top four advance to a November ranked-choice general election regardless of party. The open seat stems from term limits on incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Democratic support consolidated early around the two remaining candidates after Sen. Matt Claman withdrew, while the large Republican field has split votes among more than a dozen entrants. Absentee ballot counting continues through August 28, with official certification expected by August 31—the deadline for any top finishers to withdraw and potentially allow the fifth-place candidate to advance. Trader sentiment reflects these early returns and the low likelihood that remaining ballots will alter the current top four, though final margins between the fourth- and fifth-place candidates could still shift slightly.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$274,766
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.**Two Democrats and two Republicans currently lead partial results from Alaska’s August 18 top-four open primary for governor.** With roughly 80% of votes counted, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) and Tom Begich (D) hold the top two spots at 21.6% and 20.1%, respectively, while Republican Bernadette Wilson sits third at 10.4% and Dave Bronson fourth at 8.4%. The next two Republicans, Treg Taylor and Click Bishop, trail at 7.4% and 7.2%. Alaska’s system places all 17 candidates on a single ballot; the top four advance to a November ranked-choice general election regardless of party. The open seat stems from term limits on incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Democratic support consolidated early around the two remaining candidates after Sen. Matt Claman withdrew, while the large Republican field has split votes among more than a dozen entrants. Absentee ballot counting continues through August 28, with official certification expected by August 31—the deadline for any top finishers to withdraw and potentially allow the fifth-place candidate to advance. Trader sentiment reflects these early returns and the low likelihood that remaining ballots will alter the current top four, though final margins between the fourth- and fifth-place candidates could still shift slightly.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$274,766
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bernadette Wilson" at 100%, followed by "Tom Begich" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" has generated $274.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Bernadette Wilson" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Begich" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.