Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination with a commanding 47.8% in the August 18 primary, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and broad party support across key demographics. James Fishback, a political newcomer and investment firm founder positioning himself as a populist outsider critical of establishment figures, finished third with 10.5% of the vote. Late polls consistently placed him in single digits to low double digits amid limited name recognition outside younger voters, weak fundraising, and exclusion from official party debates over controversial statements. His appeal remained concentrated among niche online and age-based coalitions that did not expand statewide. Results aligned closely with polling aggregates showing no viable path to a higher share, leaving little uncertainty for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJames Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback 10–15% 100.0%
Fishback <10% <1%
Fishback 15–20% <1%
Fishback 20–25% <1%
$387,581 Vol.
$387,581 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
No
Fishback 10–15%
Yes
Fishback 15–20%
No
Fishback 20–25%
No
Fishback 25–30%
No
Fishback 30%+
No
Fishback 10–15% 100.0%
Fishback <10% <1%
Fishback 15–20% <1%
Fishback 20–25% <1%
$387,581 Vol.
$387,581 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
$280,544 Vol.
No
Fishback 10–15%
$36,006 Vol.
Yes
Fishback 15–20%
$13,551 Vol.
No
Fishback 20–25%
$17,597 Vol.
No
Fishback 25–30%
$10,829 Vol.
No
Fishback 30%+
$29,054 Vol.
No
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination with a commanding 47.8% in the August 18 primary, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and broad party support across key demographics. James Fishback, a political newcomer and investment firm founder positioning himself as a populist outsider critical of establishment figures, finished third with 10.5% of the vote. Late polls consistently placed him in single digits to low double digits amid limited name recognition outside younger voters, weak fundraising, and exclusion from official party debates over controversial statements. His appeal remained concentrated among niche online and age-based coalitions that did not expand statewide. Results aligned closely with polling aggregates showing no viable path to a higher share, leaving little uncertainty for traders.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$387,581End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination with a commanding 47.8% in the August 18 primary, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and broad party support across key demographics. James Fishback, a political newcomer and investment firm founder positioning himself as a populist outsider critical of establishment figures, finished third with 10.5% of the vote. Late polls consistently placed him in single digits to low double digits amid limited name recognition outside younger voters, weak fundraising, and exclusion from official party debates over controversial statements. His appeal remained concentrated among niche online and age-based coalitions that did not expand statewide. Results aligned closely with polling aggregates showing no viable path to a higher share, leaving little uncertainty for traders.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$387,581End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination with a commanding 47.8% in the August 18 primary, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and broad party support across key demographics. James Fishback, a political newcomer and investment firm founder positioning himself as a populist outsider critical of establishment figures, finished third with 10.5% of the vote. Late polls consistently placed him in single digits to low double digits amid limited name recognition outside younger voters, weak fundraising, and exclusion from official party debates over controversial statements. His appeal remained concentrated among niche online and age-based coalitions that did not expand statewide. Results aligned closely with polling aggregates showing no viable path to a higher share, leaving little uncertainty for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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