Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with 43.2% of the vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, producing a roughly 21-point margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki. His commanding position stemmed from an early endorsement by President Trump, which consolidated conservative support and prompted other candidates including former Gov. Jeff Colyer to exit, combined with Masterson’s visibility as Senate president and emphasis on tax relief, public safety, and education policy. The remaining vote fragmented among business executive Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Official certification or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could shift the final margin outside the 20–25 point band reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMasterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 15–20% 3.7%
Masterson 5–10% 3.7%
Masterson 25%+ <1%
$19,587 Vol.
$19,587 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
98%
Masterson 15–20%
4%
Masterson 10–15%
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
4%
Masterson <5%
<1%
Masterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 15–20% 3.7%
Masterson 5–10% 3.7%
Masterson 25%+ <1%
$19,587 Vol.
$19,587 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
$6,922 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
$1,852 Vol.
98%
Masterson 15–20%
$1,259 Vol.
4%
Masterson 10–15%
$1,565 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
$1,122 Vol.
4%
Masterson <5%
$2,565 Vol.
<1%
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with 43.2% of the vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, producing a roughly 21-point margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki. His commanding position stemmed from an early endorsement by President Trump, which consolidated conservative support and prompted other candidates including former Gov. Jeff Colyer to exit, combined with Masterson’s visibility as Senate president and emphasis on tax relief, public safety, and education policy. The remaining vote fragmented among business executive Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Official certification or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could shift the final margin outside the 20–25 point band reflected in current trader consensus.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ET
Volume
$19,587End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with 43.2% of the vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, producing a roughly 21-point margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki. His commanding position stemmed from an early endorsement by President Trump, which consolidated conservative support and prompted other candidates including former Gov. Jeff Colyer to exit, combined with Masterson’s visibility as Senate president and emphasis on tax relief, public safety, and education policy. The remaining vote fragmented among business executive Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Official certification or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could shift the final margin outside the 20–25 point band reflected in current trader consensus.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$19,587End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with 43.2% of the vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, producing a roughly 21-point margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki. His commanding position stemmed from an early endorsement by President Trump, which consolidated conservative support and prompted other candidates including former Gov. Jeff Colyer to exit, combined with Masterson’s visibility as Senate president and emphasis on tax relief, public safety, and education policy. The remaining vote fragmented among business executive Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Official certification or minor recount adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could shift the final margin outside the 20–25 point band reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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