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Politics·Primaries

Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?

icon for Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?

Tom Begich 70%

Matt Heilala 52%

Shelley Hughes 52%

Hank Kroll 52%

Polymarket

$1,381 Vol.

Tom Begich 70%

Matt Heilala 52%

Shelley Hughes 52%

Hank Kroll 52%

Polymarket

$1,381 Vol.

icon for Tom Begich

Tom Begich

$251 Vol.

70%

icon for Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala

$51 Vol.

52%

icon for Shelley Hughes

Shelley Hughes

$54 Vol.

52%

icon for Hank Kroll

Hank Kroll

$56 Vol.

52%

icon for Treg Taylor

Treg Taylor

$67 Vol.

52%

icon for Lesil McGuire

Lesil McGuire

$53 Vol.

52%

icon for Click Bishop

Click Bishop

$20 Vol.

50%

icon for Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson

$213 Vol.

50%

icon for Adam Crum

Adam Crum

$20 Vol.

50%

icon for Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom

$80 Vol.

50%

icon for Edna DeVries

Edna DeVries

$20 Vol.

50%

icon for James Parkin

James Parkin

$25 Vol.

50%

icon for Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson

$20 Vol.

50%

icon for Jessica Faircloth

Jessica Faircloth

$20 Vol.

50%

icon for Destry J. Payne Sr.

Destry J. Payne Sr.

$57 Vol.

50%

icon for Bruce Walden

Bruce Walden

$55 Vol.

48%

icon for Gregg Brelsford

Gregg Brelsford

$80 Vol.

48%

icon for Bill Walker

Bill Walker

$20 Vol.

48%

icon for Matt Claman

Matt Claman

$25 Vol.

37%

icon for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

$194 Vol.

63%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the market for first place in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary at 63%, driven by his strong early vote returns of 21.6% against a 17-candidate field seeking to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. His positioning stems from the largest fundraising total, extensive rural outreach including fisheries endorsements, and Democratic vote consolidation after Sen. Matt Claman withdrew. Tom Begich trails at roughly 20% in preliminary counts, with Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson next among the fragmented GOP field. Thousands of mail ballots remain to be tallied through late August, though current tallies and campaign momentum have shaped trader consensus on the primary outcome ahead of the ranked-choice general election.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$1,381
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the market for first place in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary at 63%, driven by his strong early vote returns of 21.6% against a 17-candidate field seeking to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. His positioning stems from the largest fundraising total, extensive rural outreach including fisheries endorsements, and Democratic vote consolidation after Sen. Matt Claman withdrew. Tom Begich trails at roughly 20% in preliminary counts, with Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson next among the fragmented GOP field. Thousands of mail ballots remain to be tallied through late August, though current tallies and campaign momentum have shaped trader consensus on the primary outcome ahead of the ranked-choice general election.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$1,381
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the most votes in the non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins" at 63%, followed by "Matt Claman" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Claman" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will place first in the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.