Stephen Skoly leads trader consensus in the RI-02 Republican primary at 60.5% implied probability, ahead of Victor Mellor at 34.5%, following Skoly’s endorsement by the Rhode Island Republican Party at its June 2026 state convention. The endorsement, secured after the nominating committee’s recommendation and a contested voice vote among district delegates, provides ballot placement advantages and signals institutional support in a two-candidate primary set for September 9. Mellor, a self-funded businessman and Marine veteran who recently returned to the state, has raised substantially more campaign funds but trails in early polling with high undecided voters. A scheduled televised debate on September 4 and ongoing early voting that began August 20 represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift assessments of each candidate’s path to the nomination.