Ryan Elijah secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 7th Congressional District on August 18 with approximately 47% of the primary vote against incumbent Cory Mills’ 34%, producing a roughly 13-point margin. Investigations by the House Ethics Committee and Justice Department into allegations of misconduct and campaign finance issues against Mills, combined with the withdrawal of key endorsements from figures including President Trump and several Florida Republicans, sharply eroded the incumbent’s support in the final weeks. Polling in mid-August showed Elijah pulling ahead decisively among likely voters. Certification and any potential recounts represent the only realistic paths to altering the recorded margin, though the scale of the result makes significant shifts improbable. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed election-night and post-election developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElijah 10–15% 99.4%
Elijah 5–10% <1%
Elijah 25%+ <1%
Elijah <5% <1%
$2,841 Vol.
$2,841 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Mills 25%+
<1%
Mills 20–25%
<1%
Mills 15–20%
<1%
Mills 10–15%
<1%
Mills 5–10%
<1%
Mills <5%
<1%
Elijah <5%
1%
Elijah 5–10%
1%
Elijah 10–15%
99%
Elijah 15–20%
<1%
Elijah 20–25%
1%
Elijah 25%+
1%
Elijah 10–15% 99.4%
Elijah 5–10% <1%
Elijah 25%+ <1%
Elijah <5% <1%
$2,841 Vol.
$2,841 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Mills 25%+
$362 Vol.
<1%
Mills 20–25%
$273 Vol.
<1%
Mills 15–20%
$458 Vol.
<1%
Mills 10–15%
$250 Vol.
<1%
Mills 5–10%
$255 Vol.
<1%
Mills <5%
$250 Vol.
<1%
Elijah <5%
$50 Vol.
1%
Elijah 5–10%
$250 Vol.
1%
Elijah 10–15%
$70 Vol.
99%
Elijah 15–20%
$265 Vol.
<1%
Elijah 20–25%
$250 Vol.
1%
Elijah 25%+
$107 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ryan Elijah secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 7th Congressional District on August 18 with approximately 47% of the primary vote against incumbent Cory Mills’ 34%, producing a roughly 13-point margin. Investigations by the House Ethics Committee and Justice Department into allegations of misconduct and campaign finance issues against Mills, combined with the withdrawal of key endorsements from figures including President Trump and several Florida Republicans, sharply eroded the incumbent’s support in the final weeks. Polling in mid-August showed Elijah pulling ahead decisively among likely voters. Certification and any potential recounts represent the only realistic paths to altering the recorded margin, though the scale of the result makes significant shifts improbable. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed election-night and post-election developments.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,841End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ryan Elijah secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 7th Congressional District on August 18 with approximately 47% of the primary vote against incumbent Cory Mills’ 34%, producing a roughly 13-point margin. Investigations by the House Ethics Committee and Justice Department into allegations of misconduct and campaign finance issues against Mills, combined with the withdrawal of key endorsements from figures including President Trump and several Florida Republicans, sharply eroded the incumbent’s support in the final weeks. Polling in mid-August showed Elijah pulling ahead decisively among likely voters. Certification and any potential recounts represent the only realistic paths to altering the recorded margin, though the scale of the result makes significant shifts improbable. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed election-night and post-election developments.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$2,841End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ryan Elijah secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 7th Congressional District on August 18 with approximately 47% of the primary vote against incumbent Cory Mills’ 34%, producing a roughly 13-point margin. Investigations by the House Ethics Committee and Justice Department into allegations of misconduct and campaign finance issues against Mills, combined with the withdrawal of key endorsements from figures including President Trump and several Florida Republicans, sharply eroded the incumbent’s support in the final weeks. Polling in mid-August showed Elijah pulling ahead decisively among likely voters. Certification and any potential recounts represent the only realistic paths to altering the recorded margin, though the scale of the result makes significant shifts improbable. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed election-night and post-election developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions