Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor on August 18 with 47.8% of the primary vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (25.2%), James Fishback (10.5%), and the rest of a crowded field, producing a margin that aligns with trader consensus around 20–25 points. An early and emphatic endorsement from President Trump, combined with Donalds’ superior name recognition, fundraising edge exceeding $13 million in direct campaign funds, and consistent double-digit leads in statewide polling throughout 2026, consolidated support among Republican primary voters. Collins positioned himself as a defender of the DeSantis record, yet the absence of a gubernatorial endorsement and vote-splitting among multiple challengers limited his ceiling. The outcome reflects the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets assessing these structural and organizational advantages heading into election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDonalds 20–25% 98.5%
Donalds 15–20% 2.7%
Donalds 25–30% 1.0%
Donalds 40%+ <1%
$86,965 Vol.
$86,965 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
1%
Donalds 35–40%
<1%
Donalds 30–35%
1%
Donalds 25–30%
1%
Donalds 20–25%
99%
Donalds 15–20%
3%
Donalds 10–15%
1%
Donalds 5–10%
<1%
Donalds <5%
<1%
Collins wins
<1%
Fishback wins
<1%
Donalds 20–25% 98.5%
Donalds 15–20% 2.7%
Donalds 25–30% 1.0%
Donalds 40%+ <1%
$86,965 Vol.
$86,965 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Donalds 40%+
$34,848 Vol.
1%
Donalds 35–40%
$15,393 Vol.
<1%
Donalds 30–35%
$7,839 Vol.
1%
Donalds 25–30%
$8,634 Vol.
1%
Donalds 20–25%
$2,167 Vol.
99%
Donalds 15–20%
$3,879 Vol.
3%
Donalds 10–15%
$3,381 Vol.
1%
Donalds 5–10%
$3,330 Vol.
<1%
Donalds <5%
$4,275 Vol.
<1%
Collins wins
$2,193 Vol.
<1%
Fishback wins
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor on August 18 with 47.8% of the primary vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (25.2%), James Fishback (10.5%), and the rest of a crowded field, producing a margin that aligns with trader consensus around 20–25 points. An early and emphatic endorsement from President Trump, combined with Donalds’ superior name recognition, fundraising edge exceeding $13 million in direct campaign funds, and consistent double-digit leads in statewide polling throughout 2026, consolidated support among Republican primary voters. Collins positioned himself as a defender of the DeSantis record, yet the absence of a gubernatorial endorsement and vote-splitting among multiple challengers limited his ceiling. The outcome reflects the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets assessing these structural and organizational advantages heading into election night.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$86,965End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor on August 18 with 47.8% of the primary vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (25.2%), James Fishback (10.5%), and the rest of a crowded field, producing a margin that aligns with trader consensus around 20–25 points. An early and emphatic endorsement from President Trump, combined with Donalds’ superior name recognition, fundraising edge exceeding $13 million in direct campaign funds, and consistent double-digit leads in statewide polling throughout 2026, consolidated support among Republican primary voters. Collins positioned himself as a defender of the DeSantis record, yet the absence of a gubernatorial endorsement and vote-splitting among multiple challengers limited his ceiling. The outcome reflects the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets assessing these structural and organizational advantages heading into election night.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$86,965End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Byron Donalds secured the Republican nomination for Florida governor on August 18 with 47.8% of the primary vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (25.2%), James Fishback (10.5%), and the rest of a crowded field, producing a margin that aligns with trader consensus around 20–25 points. An early and emphatic endorsement from President Trump, combined with Donalds’ superior name recognition, fundraising edge exceeding $13 million in direct campaign funds, and consistent double-digit leads in statewide polling throughout 2026, consolidated support among Republican primary voters. Collins positioned himself as a defender of the DeSantis record, yet the absence of a gubernatorial endorsement and vote-splitting among multiple challengers limited his ceiling. The outcome reflects the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets assessing these structural and organizational advantages heading into election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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