Wyoming's at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Republican nominee holding overwhelming trader support. The open race follows incumbent Harriet Hageman's decision to pursue the U.S. Senate nomination, leading to an August 18 primary that produced Republican Chuck Gray and Democrat Lisa Kinney as the major-party candidates. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's strong partisan voter index favoring the GOP, consistent historical turnout patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. Recent primary results and nonpartisan assessments reinforce the structural advantages for the Republican nominee. A meaningful shift in odds would require an unprecedented national realignment, candidate disqualification, or exceptionally damaging late-breaking development to overcome the state's entrenched electoral dynamics before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
$44,175 Vol.
$44,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
<1%
$44,175 Vol.
$44,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,234 Vol.
97%
Democratic Party
$23,941 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Republican nominee holding overwhelming trader support. The open race follows incumbent Harriet Hageman's decision to pursue the U.S. Senate nomination, leading to an August 18 primary that produced Republican Chuck Gray and Democrat Lisa Kinney as the major-party candidates. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's strong partisan voter index favoring the GOP, consistent historical turnout patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. Recent primary results and nonpartisan assessments reinforce the structural advantages for the Republican nominee. A meaningful shift in odds would require an unprecedented national realignment, candidate disqualification, or exceptionally damaging late-breaking development to overcome the state's entrenched electoral dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$44,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Republican nominee holding overwhelming trader support. The open race follows incumbent Harriet Hageman's decision to pursue the U.S. Senate nomination, leading to an August 18 primary that produced Republican Chuck Gray and Democrat Lisa Kinney as the major-party candidates. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's strong partisan voter index favoring the GOP, consistent historical turnout patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. Recent primary results and nonpartisan assessments reinforce the structural advantages for the Republican nominee. A meaningful shift in odds would require an unprecedented national realignment, candidate disqualification, or exceptionally damaging late-breaking development to overcome the state's entrenched electoral dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's at-large congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the Republican nominee holding overwhelming trader support. The open race follows incumbent Harriet Hageman's decision to pursue the U.S. Senate nomination, leading to an August 18 primary that produced Republican Chuck Gray and Democrat Lisa Kinney as the major-party candidates. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's strong partisan voter index favoring the GOP, consistent historical turnout patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. Recent primary results and nonpartisan assessments reinforce the structural advantages for the Republican nominee. A meaningful shift in odds would require an unprecedented national realignment, candidate disqualification, or exceptionally damaging late-breaking development to overcome the state's entrenched electoral dynamics before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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