Redistricting under recent California maps placed Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same newly configured CA-40 district, which spans portions of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties and leans Republican. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured roughly 35% of the vote to advance first, ahead of Kim at 21%, with Democratic candidates trailing further behind. This performance, combined with Calvert's long tenure, committee role on defense appropriations, and outside spending support, has positioned him as the frontrunner in trader assessments for the November general election matchup. Kim's advantages in direct fundraising have not offset Calvert's edge in primary voter support and historical district strength. No major developments have shifted these dynamics in the weeks since the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
77%
Young Kim
24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
$1,021 Vol.
77%
Young Kim
$791 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California maps placed Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same newly configured CA-40 district, which spans portions of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties and leans Republican. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured roughly 35% of the vote to advance first, ahead of Kim at 21%, with Democratic candidates trailing further behind. This performance, combined with Calvert's long tenure, committee role on defense appropriations, and outside spending support, has positioned him as the frontrunner in trader assessments for the November general election matchup. Kim's advantages in direct fundraising have not offset Calvert's edge in primary voter support and historical district strength. No major developments have shifted these dynamics in the weeks since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California maps placed Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same newly configured CA-40 district, which spans portions of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties and leans Republican. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured roughly 35% of the vote to advance first, ahead of Kim at 21%, with Democratic candidates trailing further behind. This performance, combined with Calvert's long tenure, committee role on defense appropriations, and outside spending support, has positioned him as the frontrunner in trader assessments for the November general election matchup. Kim's advantages in direct fundraising have not offset Calvert's edge in primary voter support and historical district strength. No major developments have shifted these dynamics in the weeks since the primary.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Redistricting under recent California maps placed Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same newly configured CA-40 district, which spans portions of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties and leans Republican. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Calvert secured roughly 35% of the vote to advance first, ahead of Kim at 21%, with Democratic candidates trailing further behind. This performance, combined with Calvert's long tenure, committee role on defense appropriations, and outside spending support, has positioned him as the frontrunner in trader assessments for the November general election matchup. Kim's advantages in direct fundraising have not offset Calvert's edge in primary voter support and historical district strength. No major developments have shifted these dynamics in the weeks since the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions