Ashley Moody holds a commanding 92 percent implied probability in the Florida Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, her status as the appointed incumbent with broad party backing, and a decisive primary win that cleared the path against limited opposition. Recent polling averages show her ahead of Democratic nominee Angie Nixon by roughly 8-10 points, while Moody maintains a substantial cash advantage exceeding $8 million. Nixon's upset victory in the Democratic primary over better-funded rival Alex Vindman shifted the contest further toward Republicans, prompting forecasters to rate it Safe Republican given her progressive profile and limited resources in a state Donald Trump carried by double digits in the prior cycle. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow the gap, though the structural and financial disparities present notable barriers to a competitive outcome on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$94,818 Vol.
$94,818 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$94,818 Vol.
$94,818 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$51,155 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$43,663 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding 92 percent implied probability in the Florida Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, her status as the appointed incumbent with broad party backing, and a decisive primary win that cleared the path against limited opposition. Recent polling averages show her ahead of Democratic nominee Angie Nixon by roughly 8-10 points, while Moody maintains a substantial cash advantage exceeding $8 million. Nixon's upset victory in the Democratic primary over better-funded rival Alex Vindman shifted the contest further toward Republicans, prompting forecasters to rate it Safe Republican given her progressive profile and limited resources in a state Donald Trump carried by double digits in the prior cycle. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow the gap, though the structural and financial disparities present notable barriers to a competitive outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$94,818Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding 92 percent implied probability in the Florida Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, her status as the appointed incumbent with broad party backing, and a decisive primary win that cleared the path against limited opposition. Recent polling averages show her ahead of Democratic nominee Angie Nixon by roughly 8-10 points, while Moody maintains a substantial cash advantage exceeding $8 million. Nixon's upset victory in the Democratic primary over better-funded rival Alex Vindman shifted the contest further toward Republicans, prompting forecasters to rate it Safe Republican given her progressive profile and limited resources in a state Donald Trump carried by double digits in the prior cycle. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow the gap, though the structural and financial disparities present notable barriers to a competitive outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$94,818Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding 92 percent implied probability in the Florida Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, her status as the appointed incumbent with broad party backing, and a decisive primary win that cleared the path against limited opposition. Recent polling averages show her ahead of Democratic nominee Angie Nixon by roughly 8-10 points, while Moody maintains a substantial cash advantage exceeding $8 million. Nixon's upset victory in the Democratic primary over better-funded rival Alex Vindman shifted the contest further toward Republicans, prompting forecasters to rate it Safe Republican given her progressive profile and limited resources in a state Donald Trump carried by double digits in the prior cycle. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow the gap, though the structural and financial disparities present notable barriers to a competitive outcome on November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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