Recent polling averages have stabilized with Democrats holding a roughly 6- to 7-point edge on the generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterms, reflecting consistent survey results from multiple outlets. Low presidential approval near 38 percent and typical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party sustain this positioning, while factors such as renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices have helped Democrats maintain or modestly widen their advantage after a narrower gap in July. The market remains tight because recent data points cluster in a narrow band with limited movement over the past month, and daily or weekly fluctuations introduce uncertainty around the precise margin. New survey releases or shifts in economic or foreign policy conditions on or near August 24 could produce separation by altering voter sentiment in key demographics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems +6.4–6.5% 100%
Dems +6.3% or lower 100%
Dems +6.8–6.9% 84%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 80%
$140 Vol.
$140 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
20%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
10%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
84%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
80%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
49%
Dems +6.3% or lower
100%
Dems +6.4–6.5% 100%
Dems +6.3% or lower 100%
Dems +6.8–6.9% 84%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 80%
$140 Vol.
$140 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
$0 Vol.
20%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
$140 Vol.
10%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
$0 Vol.
84%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
$0 Vol.
80%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
$0 Vol.
49%
Dems +6.3% or lower
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling averages have stabilized with Democrats holding a roughly 6- to 7-point edge on the generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterms, reflecting consistent survey results from multiple outlets. Low presidential approval near 38 percent and typical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party sustain this positioning, while factors such as renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices have helped Democrats maintain or modestly widen their advantage after a narrower gap in July. The market remains tight because recent data points cluster in a narrow band with limited movement over the past month, and daily or weekly fluctuations introduce uncertainty around the precise margin. New survey releases or shifts in economic or foreign policy conditions on or near August 24 could produce separation by altering voter sentiment in key demographics.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$140End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling averages have stabilized with Democrats holding a roughly 6- to 7-point edge on the generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterms, reflecting consistent survey results from multiple outlets. Low presidential approval near 38 percent and typical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party sustain this positioning, while factors such as renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices have helped Democrats maintain or modestly widen their advantage after a narrower gap in July. The market remains tight because recent data points cluster in a narrow band with limited movement over the past month, and daily or weekly fluctuations introduce uncertainty around the precise margin. New survey releases or shifts in economic or foreign policy conditions on or near August 24 could produce separation by altering voter sentiment in key demographics.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volume
$140End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages have stabilized with Democrats holding a roughly 6- to 7-point edge on the generic congressional ballot heading into the 2026 midterms, reflecting consistent survey results from multiple outlets. Low presidential approval near 38 percent and typical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party sustain this positioning, while factors such as renewed tensions with Iran and higher gas prices have helped Democrats maintain or modestly widen their advantage after a narrower gap in July. The market remains tight because recent data points cluster in a narrow band with limited movement over the past month, and daily or weekly fluctuations introduce uncertainty around the precise margin. New survey releases or shifts in economic or foreign policy conditions on or near August 24 could produce separation by altering voter sentiment in key demographics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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