Several Republican-held seats on the 2026 midterm map, including open races in North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio plus contests in Alaska, Texas, and Maine, have tightened amid recent polling shifts and rating changes by groups such as Cook Political Report. Late August surveys show margins under 5 points in North Carolina, Michigan, and several others, driven by candidate matchups, primary outcomes, and national conditions. Democrats defend fewer vulnerable seats while targeting Republican territory, with primaries concluding and the November 3 general election now the key upcoming catalyst that could determine final margins across battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,221 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
85%
Alaska
69%
Iowa
68%
Ohio (Special)
66%
Maine
67%
Nebraska
62%
New Hampshire
54%
Michigan
49%
Florida (Special)
30%
Georgia
20%
New Mexico
12%
North Carolina
9%
Minnesota
6%
Montana
5%
Virginia
3%
Colorado
2%
$44,221 Vol.
Texas
$4,377 Vol.
85%
Alaska
$1,936 Vol.
69%
Iowa
$3,456 Vol.
68%
Ohio (Special)
$2,894 Vol.
66%
Maine
$708 Vol.
67%
Nebraska
$2,730 Vol.
62%
New Hampshire
$2,072 Vol.
54%
Michigan
$2,301 Vol.
49%
Florida (Special)
$1,480 Vol.
30%
Georgia
$686 Vol.
20%
New Mexico
$6,374 Vol.
12%
North Carolina
$2,559 Vol.
9%
Minnesota
$7,668 Vol.
6%
Montana
$1,885 Vol.
5%
Virginia
$1,272 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$1,823 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats on the 2026 midterm map, including open races in North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio plus contests in Alaska, Texas, and Maine, have tightened amid recent polling shifts and rating changes by groups such as Cook Political Report. Late August surveys show margins under 5 points in North Carolina, Michigan, and several others, driven by candidate matchups, primary outcomes, and national conditions. Democrats defend fewer vulnerable seats while targeting Republican territory, with primaries concluding and the November 3 general election now the key upcoming catalyst that could determine final margins across battleground states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$44,221End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held seats on the 2026 midterm map, including open races in North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio plus contests in Alaska, Texas, and Maine, have tightened amid recent polling shifts and rating changes by groups such as Cook Political Report. Late August surveys show margins under 5 points in North Carolina, Michigan, and several others, driven by candidate matchups, primary outcomes, and national conditions. Democrats defend fewer vulnerable seats while targeting Republican territory, with primaries concluding and the November 3 general election now the key upcoming catalyst that could determine final margins across battleground states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$44,221End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several Republican-held seats on the 2026 midterm map, including open races in North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio plus contests in Alaska, Texas, and Maine, have tightened amid recent polling shifts and rating changes by groups such as Cook Political Report. Late August surveys show margins under 5 points in North Carolina, Michigan, and several others, driven by candidate matchups, primary outcomes, and national conditions. Democrats defend fewer vulnerable seats while targeting Republican territory, with primaries concluding and the November 3 general election now the key upcoming catalyst that could determine final margins across battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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