Several open gubernatorial seats in 2026, driven by term limits in states including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas, have created a cluster of competitive matchups that traders view as most likely to produce the narrowest margins. Georgia and Iowa sit as toss-ups across major forecasters, with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada similarly tight based on polling and structural factors like voter coalitions in battlegrounds. Ohio’s recent surveys show near-ties between leading contenders, while Kansas reflects an open Democratic seat in a Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics keep probabilities bunched because candidate fields, turnout patterns, and national economic signals remain fluid with the November general election still months away; late primaries, endorsements, or shifts in voter sentiment could widen separation in any of the top states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida 16.8%
Ohio 15.2%
Georgia 12.3%
Iowa 11.6%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Florida
11%
Ohio
15%
Georgia
12%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
12%
Texas
11%
Nevada
9%
Kansas
7%
Minnesota
6%
Colorado
6%
New Hampshire
5%
New Mexico
4%
Alaska
4%
Michigan
3%
Arizona
2%
Vermont
2%
Maine
1%
Oregon
1%
Florida 16.8%
Ohio 15.2%
Georgia 12.3%
Iowa 11.6%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Florida
$234 Vol.
11%
Ohio
$708 Vol.
15%
Georgia
$424 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,485 Vol.
12%
Wisconsin
$1,045 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,689 Vol.
11%
Nevada
$2,572 Vol.
9%
Kansas
$2,119 Vol.
7%
Minnesota
$249 Vol.
6%
Colorado
$248 Vol.
6%
New Hampshire
$474 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$221 Vol.
4%
Alaska
$212 Vol.
4%
Michigan
$334 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$274 Vol.
2%
Vermont
$181 Vol.
2%
Maine
$360 Vol.
1%
Oregon
$331 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open gubernatorial seats in 2026, driven by term limits in states including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas, have created a cluster of competitive matchups that traders view as most likely to produce the narrowest margins. Georgia and Iowa sit as toss-ups across major forecasters, with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada similarly tight based on polling and structural factors like voter coalitions in battlegrounds. Ohio’s recent surveys show near-ties between leading contenders, while Kansas reflects an open Democratic seat in a Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics keep probabilities bunched because candidate fields, turnout patterns, and national economic signals remain fluid with the November general election still months away; late primaries, endorsements, or shifts in voter sentiment could widen separation in any of the top states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$13,160End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open gubernatorial seats in 2026, driven by term limits in states including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas, have created a cluster of competitive matchups that traders view as most likely to produce the narrowest margins. Georgia and Iowa sit as toss-ups across major forecasters, with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada similarly tight based on polling and structural factors like voter coalitions in battlegrounds. Ohio’s recent surveys show near-ties between leading contenders, while Kansas reflects an open Democratic seat in a Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics keep probabilities bunched because candidate fields, turnout patterns, and national economic signals remain fluid with the November general election still months away; late primaries, endorsements, or shifts in voter sentiment could widen separation in any of the top states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,160End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open gubernatorial seats in 2026, driven by term limits in states including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas, have created a cluster of competitive matchups that traders view as most likely to produce the narrowest margins. Georgia and Iowa sit as toss-ups across major forecasters, with Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada similarly tight based on polling and structural factors like voter coalitions in battlegrounds. Ohio’s recent surveys show near-ties between leading contenders, while Kansas reflects an open Democratic seat in a Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics keep probabilities bunched because candidate fields, turnout patterns, and national economic signals remain fluid with the November general election still months away; late primaries, endorsements, or shifts in voter sentiment could widen separation in any of the top states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions