Mitch McConnell has not cast an in-person Senate floor vote since June 11, 2026, after a June 14 fall led to hospitalization for pneumonia and ongoing rehabilitation. As of late July, his office and the Capitol physician stated he remained in a rehab facility, was not medically cleared to return to duties, and required intensive daily physical therapy, with childhood polio continuing to affect mobility. This extended absence through mid-August sessions, combined with the senator’s age and prior health episodes, has produced near-unanimous trader consensus against a return in the final days before August 31. A last-minute medical clearance allowing floor participation remains the primary, though low-probability, factor that could alter the outcome before the resolution window closes.