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Politics·Iran

Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?

icon for Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?
Politics·Iran

Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?

75% chance
Polymarket
NEW
75% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s June 2026 supplemental request of $87.6 billion, including $67.1 billion for the Department of Defense to cover munitions replenishment, operational costs, and other expenses tied to Operation Epic Fury against Iran, has prompted Senate Appropriations Committee hearings and Majority Leader John Thune’s push to advance at least a portion of the funding. Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution through December, along with House action on related defense frameworks exceeding $70 billion, has contributed to trader views that the chamber will clear a measure meeting the $20 billion threshold before the September 30 fiscal year-end. Bipartisan urgency around military readiness exists despite Democratic opposition over war costs, unspent prior-year funds, and the 60-vote threshold, while the compressed timeline before recess ends keeps negotiations active.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$449
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s June 2026 supplemental request of $87.6 billion, including $67.1 billion for the Department of Defense to cover munitions replenishment, operational costs, and other expenses tied to Operation Epic Fury against Iran, has prompted Senate Appropriations Committee hearings and Majority Leader John Thune’s push to advance at least a portion of the funding. Recent Senate passage of a continuing resolution through December, along with House action on related defense frameworks exceeding $70 billion, has contributed to trader views that the chamber will clear a measure meeting the $20 billion threshold before the September 30 fiscal year-end. Bipartisan urgency around military readiness exists despite Democratic opposition over war costs, unspent prior-year funds, and the 60-vote threshold, while the compressed timeline before recess ends keeps negotiations active.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$449
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a bill that, if enacted, would provide at least $20 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 67% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 67¢, the market collectively assigns a 67% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" is 67% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 67% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.