As of late August 2026, Ballotpedia and AP trackers show 37–41 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands 92% market probability. This elevated pace stems from the party’s narrow majority, primary pressure on vulnerable members, and institutional fatigue after multiple terms, with many citing subcommittee roles or committee chairs among the departures. Most filing deadlines have passed or approach soon in key states, locking in the count absent unusual reversals. Late shifts could occur only if a handful of members reverse course before general election ballots finalize or if additional primary defeats push the figure higher, though current trends make such moves improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 92.0%
40–43 1.8%
<24 1.5%
44+ 1.4%
$72,763 Vol.
$72,763 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
1%
32–35
1%
36–39
92%
40–43
2%
44+
1%
36–39 92.0%
40–43 1.8%
<24 1.5%
44+ 1.4%
$72,763 Vol.
$72,763 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,188 Vol.
1%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,284 Vol.
1%
36–39
$8,437 Vol.
92%
40–43
$4,326 Vol.
2%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of late August 2026, Ballotpedia and AP trackers show 37–41 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands 92% market probability. This elevated pace stems from the party’s narrow majority, primary pressure on vulnerable members, and institutional fatigue after multiple terms, with many citing subcommittee roles or committee chairs among the departures. Most filing deadlines have passed or approach soon in key states, locking in the count absent unusual reversals. Late shifts could occur only if a handful of members reverse course before general election ballots finalize or if additional primary defeats push the figure higher, though current trends make such moves improbable.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$72,763End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of late August 2026, Ballotpedia and AP trackers show 37–41 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands 92% market probability. This elevated pace stems from the party’s narrow majority, primary pressure on vulnerable members, and institutional fatigue after multiple terms, with many citing subcommittee roles or committee chairs among the departures. Most filing deadlines have passed or approach soon in key states, locking in the count absent unusual reversals. Late shifts could occur only if a handful of members reverse course before general election ballots finalize or if additional primary defeats push the figure higher, though current trends make such moves improbable.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,763End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of late August 2026, Ballotpedia and AP trackers show 37–41 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands 92% market probability. This elevated pace stems from the party’s narrow majority, primary pressure on vulnerable members, and institutional fatigue after multiple terms, with many citing subcommittee roles or committee chairs among the departures. Most filing deadlines have passed or approach soon in key states, locking in the count absent unusual reversals. Late shifts could occur only if a handful of members reverse course before general election ballots finalize or if additional primary defeats push the figure higher, though current trends make such moves improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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