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Politics·House Of Representatives

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

icon for Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Politics·House Of Representatives

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Hakeem Jeffries 75%

Mike Johnson 16.7%

Katherine Clark 8.8%

Jim Jordan 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Hakeem Jeffries 75%

Mike Johnson 16.7%

Katherine Clark 8.8%

Jim Jordan 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Hakeem Jeffries

Hakeem Jeffries

$2,111 Vol.

75%

icon for Katherine Clark

Katherine Clark

$96 Vol.

10%

icon for Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar

$78 Vol.

2%

icon for Jim Jordan

Jim Jordan

$113 Vol.

6%

icon for Steve Scalise

Steve Scalise

$83 Vol.

5%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$124 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and prediction markets show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly six points, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party losing House seats in midterms. Republicans defend a narrow majority and face numerous retirements, increasing the chance Democrats achieve the modest net gains needed for control. Trader pricing therefore assigns Hakeem Jeffries, the current Democratic leader, a dominant implied probability as the next speaker. Lower odds on Republican figures such as Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan, and Steve Scalise reflect the market's assessment of limited prospects for continued GOP House control, while Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar trail Jeffries within Democratic leadership scenarios.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,604
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and prediction markets show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly six points, consistent with the historical pattern of the president's party losing House seats in midterms. Republicans defend a narrow majority and face numerous retirements, increasing the chance Democrats achieve the modest net gains needed for control. Trader pricing therefore assigns Hakeem Jeffries, the current Democratic leader, a dominant implied probability as the next speaker. Lower odds on Republican figures such as Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan, and Steve Scalise reflect the market's assessment of limited prospects for continued GOP House control, while Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar trail Jeffries within Democratic leadership scenarios.

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,604
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 75%, followed by "Mike Johnson" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Speaker of the House after the midterms?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" is "Hakeem Jeffries" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mike Johnson" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Speaker of the House after the midterms?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.