Trader consensus on a House impeachment before January 2029 reflects expectations that Democrats will regain control of the chamber in the November 2026 midterms and then advance articles against President Trump. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, with Democratic leadership prioritizing other issues ahead of the elections and past individual resolutions failing to advance. Short-term contracts for impeachment by late 2026 or early 2027 trade near 2-6%, underscoring the current procedural barriers. Longer-dated pricing incorporates historical patterns of divided government producing impeachment efforts, recent filings by Democratic members, and public statements from Trump and GOP leaders acknowledging the risk if the House flips. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability hurdle not required for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated67% chance
$94,580 Vol.
$94,580 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
67% chance
$94,580 Vol.
$94,580 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on a House impeachment before January 2029 reflects expectations that Democrats will regain control of the chamber in the November 2026 midterms and then advance articles against President Trump. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, with Democratic leadership prioritizing other issues ahead of the elections and past individual resolutions failing to advance. Short-term contracts for impeachment by late 2026 or early 2027 trade near 2-6%, underscoring the current procedural barriers. Longer-dated pricing incorporates historical patterns of divided government producing impeachment efforts, recent filings by Democratic members, and public statements from Trump and GOP leaders acknowledging the risk if the House flips. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability hurdle not required for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$94,580End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus on a House impeachment before January 2029 reflects expectations that Democrats will regain control of the chamber in the November 2026 midterms and then advance articles against President Trump. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, with Democratic leadership prioritizing other issues ahead of the elections and past individual resolutions failing to advance. Short-term contracts for impeachment by late 2026 or early 2027 trade near 2-6%, underscoring the current procedural barriers. Longer-dated pricing incorporates historical patterns of divided government producing impeachment efforts, recent filings by Democratic members, and public statements from Trump and GOP leaders acknowledging the risk if the House flips. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability hurdle not required for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$94,580End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a House impeachment before January 2029 reflects expectations that Democrats will regain control of the chamber in the November 2026 midterms and then advance articles against President Trump. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority, with Democratic leadership prioritizing other issues ahead of the elections and past individual resolutions failing to advance. Short-term contracts for impeachment by late 2026 or early 2027 trade near 2-6%, underscoring the current procedural barriers. Longer-dated pricing incorporates historical patterns of divided government producing impeachment efforts, recent filings by Democratic members, and public statements from Trump and GOP leaders acknowledging the risk if the House flips. Senate conviction remains a separate, lower-probability hurdle not required for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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