Multiple toss-up and lean ratings across states including Texas, Alaska, Ohio (special), Maine, Iowa, and Michigan reflect closely matched candidates and limited separation in recent polling averages. In Texas, statistical ties between Ken Paxton and James Talarico stem from suburban turnout dynamics, competing emphases on border security versus affordability, and Paxton's primary consolidation offset by favorability challenges. Similar balance appears in Alaska with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan and in Ohio where Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted, driven by candidate recruitment, regional voter blocs, and the broader midterm environment. Trader consensus on these races as most likely to finish tightest aligns with their toss-up status and narrow historical margins, while further polling shifts, debates, or ad volumes could widen gaps before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 16%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 12.0%
Michigan 11.2%
$34,000 Vol.
$34,000 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
16%
Alaska
15%
Iowa
12%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Maine
8%
Nebraska
7%
Florida (Special)
4%
Colorado
3%
New Mexico
3%
Virginia
3%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 16%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 12.0%
Michigan 11.2%
$34,000 Vol.
$34,000 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,714 Vol.
16%
Alaska
$6,032 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$2,816 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,812 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 Vol.
11%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
8%
Nebraska
$293 Vol.
7%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$716 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$490 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up and lean ratings across states including Texas, Alaska, Ohio (special), Maine, Iowa, and Michigan reflect closely matched candidates and limited separation in recent polling averages. In Texas, statistical ties between Ken Paxton and James Talarico stem from suburban turnout dynamics, competing emphases on border security versus affordability, and Paxton's primary consolidation offset by favorability challenges. Similar balance appears in Alaska with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan and in Ohio where Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted, driven by candidate recruitment, regional voter blocs, and the broader midterm environment. Trader consensus on these races as most likely to finish tightest aligns with their toss-up status and narrow historical margins, while further polling shifts, debates, or ad volumes could widen gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$34,000End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up and lean ratings across states including Texas, Alaska, Ohio (special), Maine, Iowa, and Michigan reflect closely matched candidates and limited separation in recent polling averages. In Texas, statistical ties between Ken Paxton and James Talarico stem from suburban turnout dynamics, competing emphases on border security versus affordability, and Paxton's primary consolidation offset by favorability challenges. Similar balance appears in Alaska with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan and in Ohio where Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted, driven by candidate recruitment, regional voter blocs, and the broader midterm environment. Trader consensus on these races as most likely to finish tightest aligns with their toss-up status and narrow historical margins, while further polling shifts, debates, or ad volumes could widen gaps before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,000End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple toss-up and lean ratings across states including Texas, Alaska, Ohio (special), Maine, Iowa, and Michigan reflect closely matched candidates and limited separation in recent polling averages. In Texas, statistical ties between Ken Paxton and James Talarico stem from suburban turnout dynamics, competing emphases on border security versus affordability, and Paxton's primary consolidation offset by favorability challenges. Similar balance appears in Alaska with Mary Peltola challenging Dan Sullivan and in Ohio where Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted, driven by candidate recruitment, regional voter blocs, and the broader midterm environment. Trader consensus on these races as most likely to finish tightest aligns with their toss-up status and narrow historical margins, while further polling shifts, debates, or ad volumes could widen gaps before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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