**Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti holds a trader-consensus edge in the PA-08 House race at 65% implied probability versus 28.5% for Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.** The district, centered in northeastern Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, leaned Republican in the 2024 presidential election but features a competitive House contest rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor with a record of defeating the local Democratic machine as an independent, has secured labor endorsements and demonstrated strong fundraising, including outperforming Bresnahan in the second quarter. Bresnahan’s vulnerabilities, including scrutiny over stock trades and other self-inflicted issues, have contributed to the market’s positioning despite the district’s baseline Republican tilt. Both candidates ran unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, and limited public polling shows narrow leads for Cognetti. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on turnout, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle developments in this key battleground seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-08 House Election Winner
PA-08 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,497 Vol.
69%
Republican Party
$2,826 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti holds a trader-consensus edge in the PA-08 House race at 65% implied probability versus 28.5% for Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.**
The district, centered in northeastern Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, leaned Republican in the 2024 presidential election but features a competitive House contest rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor with a record of defeating the local Democratic machine as an independent, has secured labor endorsements and demonstrated strong fundraising, including outperforming Bresnahan in the second quarter. Bresnahan’s vulnerabilities, including scrutiny over stock trades and other self-inflicted issues, have contributed to the market’s positioning despite the district’s baseline Republican tilt. Both candidates ran unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, and limited public polling shows narrow leads for Cognetti. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on turnout, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle developments in this key battleground seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,322End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti holds a trader-consensus edge in the PA-08 House race at 65% implied probability versus 28.5% for Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.**
The district, centered in northeastern Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, leaned Republican in the 2024 presidential election but features a competitive House contest rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor with a record of defeating the local Democratic machine as an independent, has secured labor endorsements and demonstrated strong fundraising, including outperforming Bresnahan in the second quarter. Bresnahan’s vulnerabilities, including scrutiny over stock trades and other self-inflicted issues, have contributed to the market’s positioning despite the district’s baseline Republican tilt. Both candidates ran unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, and limited public polling shows narrow leads for Cognetti. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on turnout, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle developments in this key battleground seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,322End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti holds a trader-consensus edge in the PA-08 House race at 65% implied probability versus 28.5% for Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.** The district, centered in northeastern Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, leaned Republican in the 2024 presidential election but features a competitive House contest rated Toss-up by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor with a record of defeating the local Democratic machine as an independent, has secured labor endorsements and demonstrated strong fundraising, including outperforming Bresnahan in the second quarter. Bresnahan’s vulnerabilities, including scrutiny over stock trades and other self-inflicted issues, have contributed to the market’s positioning despite the district’s baseline Republican tilt. Both candidates ran unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, and limited public polling shows narrow leads for Cognetti. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on turnout, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle developments in this key battleground seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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