Incumbent Valerie Foushee benefits from North Carolina’s 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Foushee secured the Democratic nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary and faces limited general-election opposition from Republican Mahesh Ganorkar, supporting the market’s overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. The district’s partisan composition and historical voting patterns in recent cycles have kept the seat out of reach for Republican challengers. Late developments that could realistically shift odds remain narrow, such as a major personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high turnout dynamics that exceed the district’s established base rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-04 House Election Winner
NC-04 House Election Winner
$38,311 Vol.
$38,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$38,311 Vol.
$38,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,749 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$23,562 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Valerie Foushee benefits from North Carolina’s 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Foushee secured the Democratic nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary and faces limited general-election opposition from Republican Mahesh Ganorkar, supporting the market’s overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. The district’s partisan composition and historical voting patterns in recent cycles have kept the seat out of reach for Republican challengers. Late developments that could realistically shift odds remain narrow, such as a major personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high turnout dynamics that exceed the district’s established base rates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$38,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Valerie Foushee benefits from North Carolina’s 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Foushee secured the Democratic nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary and faces limited general-election opposition from Republican Mahesh Ganorkar, supporting the market’s overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. The district’s partisan composition and historical voting patterns in recent cycles have kept the seat out of reach for Republican challengers. Late developments that could realistically shift odds remain narrow, such as a major personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high turnout dynamics that exceed the district’s established base rates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Valerie Foushee benefits from North Carolina’s 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+23 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters. Foushee secured the Democratic nomination in a competitive March 2026 primary and faces limited general-election opposition from Republican Mahesh Ganorkar, supporting the market’s overwhelming trader consensus favoring Democrats. The district’s partisan composition and historical voting patterns in recent cycles have kept the seat out of reach for Republican challengers. Late developments that could realistically shift odds remain narrow, such as a major personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high turnout dynamics that exceed the district’s established base rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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