Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with 65.8% of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 91.5%. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the seat Solid Republican, aligning with historical patterns where such districts rarely flip absent major shifts. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor but does not alter the core dynamics ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability events given current structural advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-04 House Election Winner
SC-04 House Election Winner
$42,505 Vol.
$42,505 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$42,505 Vol.
$42,505 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,372 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$23,133 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with 65.8% of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 91.5%. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the seat Solid Republican, aligning with historical patterns where such districts rarely flip absent major shifts. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor but does not alter the core dynamics ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability events given current structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$42,505End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with 65.8% of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 91.5%. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the seat Solid Republican, aligning with historical patterns where such districts rarely flip absent major shifts. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor but does not alter the core dynamics ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability events given current structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,505End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with 65.8% of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 91.5%. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the seat Solid Republican, aligning with historical patterns where such districts rarely flip absent major shifts. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor but does not alter the core dynamics ahead of the November general election. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability events given current structural advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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