State Senator Scott Wiener leads the market at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 11th Congressional District seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 31.5%. Wiener topped the June 2 primary with 40.7% of the vote to Chan's 29.7%, securing the top-two advancement in the open race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Key drivers include Wiener's California Democratic Party endorsement, record on housing legislation, and broader name recognition across the San Francisco-based district, while Chan's Pelosi endorsement and support from independent expenditures tied to former primary candidate Saikat Chakrabarti provide counter-momentum. Recent campaign exchanges over digital tactics have added visibility without shifting the underlying primary-result advantage. The contest remains a Democratic-held seat with outcomes hinging on turnout among core urban voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
70%
Connie Chan
32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Wiener
$2,480 Vol.
70%
Connie Chan
$2,217 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Senator Scott Wiener leads the market at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 11th Congressional District seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 31.5%. Wiener topped the June 2 primary with 40.7% of the vote to Chan's 29.7%, securing the top-two advancement in the open race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Key drivers include Wiener's California Democratic Party endorsement, record on housing legislation, and broader name recognition across the San Francisco-based district, while Chan's Pelosi endorsement and support from independent expenditures tied to former primary candidate Saikat Chakrabarti provide counter-momentum. Recent campaign exchanges over digital tactics have added visibility without shifting the underlying primary-result advantage. The contest remains a Democratic-held seat with outcomes hinging on turnout among core urban voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
Volume
$4,698End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Senator Scott Wiener leads the market at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 11th Congressional District seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 31.5%. Wiener topped the June 2 primary with 40.7% of the vote to Chan's 29.7%, securing the top-two advancement in the open race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Key drivers include Wiener's California Democratic Party endorsement, record on housing legislation, and broader name recognition across the San Francisco-based district, while Chan's Pelosi endorsement and support from independent expenditures tied to former primary candidate Saikat Chakrabarti provide counter-momentum. Recent campaign exchanges over digital tactics have added visibility without shifting the underlying primary-result advantage. The contest remains a Democratic-held seat with outcomes hinging on turnout among core urban voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,698End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...State Senator Scott Wiener leads the market at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 11th Congressional District seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan at 31.5%. Wiener topped the June 2 primary with 40.7% of the vote to Chan's 29.7%, securing the top-two advancement in the open race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi. Key drivers include Wiener's California Democratic Party endorsement, record on housing legislation, and broader name recognition across the San Francisco-based district, while Chan's Pelosi endorsement and support from independent expenditures tied to former primary candidate Saikat Chakrabarti provide counter-momentum. Recent campaign exchanges over digital tactics have added visibility without shifting the underlying primary-result advantage. The contest remains a Democratic-held seat with outcomes hinging on turnout among core urban voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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