Former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) maintains a commanding lead in the Pará Senate race for one of two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent Genial/Quaest and Atlas polls placing him between 24% and 40%—well ahead of challengers such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18%. Traders assign Helder an 86% implied probability for first place, reflecting consistent polling trends across July and August surveys and his high name recognition after two terms as governor. The MDB's organizational strength in the state and Barbalho's transition from the governorship further consolidate support. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including Gizelle Freitas and others below 6%, face structural barriers in a crowded field where voters select two distinct names. No late developments have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 87%
Gizelle Freitas 5.2%
Edlaine Rodrigues 4.3%
Delegado Éder Mauro 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
87%
Gizelle Freitas
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
4%
Delegado Éder Mauro
2%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Zequinha Marinho
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Conti
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Chicão
1%
Willem da Silva
1%
Helder 87%
Gizelle Freitas 5.2%
Edlaine Rodrigues 4.3%
Delegado Éder Mauro 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$6,047 Vol.
87%
Gizelle Freitas
$330 Vol.
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$349 Vol.
4%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$403 Vol.
2%
Breno Guimarães
$342 Vol.
1%
Zequinha Marinho
$287 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$327 Vol.
1%
Conti
$413 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$287 Vol.
1%
Chicão
$286 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$339 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) maintains a commanding lead in the Pará Senate race for one of two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent Genial/Quaest and Atlas polls placing him between 24% and 40%—well ahead of challengers such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18%. Traders assign Helder an 86% implied probability for first place, reflecting consistent polling trends across July and August surveys and his high name recognition after two terms as governor. The MDB's organizational strength in the state and Barbalho's transition from the governorship further consolidate support. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including Gizelle Freitas and others below 6%, face structural barriers in a crowded field where voters select two distinct names. No late developments have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,411End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) maintains a commanding lead in the Pará Senate race for one of two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent Genial/Quaest and Atlas polls placing him between 24% and 40%—well ahead of challengers such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18%. Traders assign Helder an 86% implied probability for first place, reflecting consistent polling trends across July and August surveys and his high name recognition after two terms as governor. The MDB's organizational strength in the state and Barbalho's transition from the governorship further consolidate support. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including Gizelle Freitas and others below 6%, face structural barriers in a crowded field where voters select two distinct names. No late developments have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,411End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) maintains a commanding lead in the Pará Senate race for one of two seats renewing on October 4, 2026, with recent Genial/Quaest and Atlas polls placing him between 24% and 40%—well ahead of challengers such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18%. Traders assign Helder an 86% implied probability for first place, reflecting consistent polling trends across July and August surveys and his high name recognition after two terms as governor. The MDB's organizational strength in the state and Barbalho's transition from the governorship further consolidate support. Multiple lower-polling candidates, including Gizelle Freitas and others below 6%, face structural barriers in a crowded field where voters select two distinct names. No late developments have altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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