Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul for the two open Senate seats shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner. A late-August Quaest survey found Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Paulo Pimenta, Germano Rigotto, and Ubiratan Sanderson statistically tied within the margin of error, while spontaneous responses revealed more than 80 percent undecided. High uncertainty, split voter preferences across parties, and the mechanics of casting two votes per ballot have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly bunched. Further clarification is likely to emerge from additional surveys, scheduled debates, or late-campaign shifts in turnout and coalition support before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Marcel Van Hattem 44%
Manuela D'Ávila 43%
Sanderson 3.8%
Tania Peres 2.4%
$12,778 Vol.
$12,778 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcel Van Hattem
44%
Manuela D'Ávila
43%
Sanderson
4%
Tania Peres
2%
Pimenta
2%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Regis Ethur
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
<1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Milton Cardoso
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Ric Jones
<1%
Rigotto
<1%
Marcel Van Hattem 44%
Manuela D'Ávila 43%
Sanderson 3.8%
Tania Peres 2.4%
$12,778 Vol.
$12,778 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcel Van Hattem
$6,464 Vol.
44%
Manuela D'Ávila
$1,947 Vol.
43%
Sanderson
$459 Vol.
4%
Tania Peres
$420 Vol.
2%
Pimenta
$908 Vol.
2%
Luciano do MLB
$277 Vol.
<1%
Regis Ethur
$256 Vol.
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$330 Vol.
<1%
Frederico Antunes
$569 Vol.
<1%
Milton Cardoso
$266 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$269 Vol.
<1%
Ric Jones
$276 Vol.
<1%
Rigotto
$340 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul for the two open Senate seats shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner. A late-August Quaest survey found Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Paulo Pimenta, Germano Rigotto, and Ubiratan Sanderson statistically tied within the margin of error, while spontaneous responses revealed more than 80 percent undecided. High uncertainty, split voter preferences across parties, and the mechanics of casting two votes per ballot have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly bunched. Further clarification is likely to emerge from additional surveys, scheduled debates, or late-campaign shifts in turnout and coalition support before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$12,778End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul for the two open Senate seats shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner. A late-August Quaest survey found Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Paulo Pimenta, Germano Rigotto, and Ubiratan Sanderson statistically tied within the margin of error, while spontaneous responses revealed more than 80 percent undecided. High uncertainty, split voter preferences across parties, and the mechanics of casting two votes per ballot have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly bunched. Further clarification is likely to emerge from additional surveys, scheduled debates, or late-campaign shifts in turnout and coalition support before the October election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,778End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul for the two open Senate seats shows a fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner. A late-August Quaest survey found Manuela d’Ávila, Marcel van Hattem, Paulo Pimenta, Germano Rigotto, and Ubiratan Sanderson statistically tied within the margin of error, while spontaneous responses revealed more than 80 percent undecided. High uncertainty, split voter preferences across parties, and the mechanics of casting two votes per ballot have kept implied probabilities for first place tightly bunched. Further clarification is likely to emerge from additional surveys, scheduled debates, or late-campaign shifts in turnout and coalition support before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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