Lula leads trader pricing for first place in the Amazonas first round of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election at 88.5 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 10.5 percent and a long list of other declared or potential candidates at 1 percent or below. Multiple state-level surveys conducted in July and August 2026 show Lula ahead by roughly nine points in stimulated scenarios, with stronger support in the interior offsetting more competitive numbers in Manaus. Recent polling trends, Lula’s emphasis on regional development projects, and the political resonance of the offshore oil discovery along the equatorial margin have reinforced his position in the state’s 2.8 million voter electorate. Flávio Bolsonaro remains the main alternative in right-leaning segments, yet current aggregates leave limited room for him to close the gap before election day. Traders therefore assign the overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first in Amazonas while treating the remaining field as distant long shots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 89%
Flavio Bolsonaro 11%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
89%
Flavio Bolsonaro
11%
Renan Santos
1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 89%
Flavio Bolsonaro 11%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,116 Vol.
89%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,367 Vol.
11%
Renan Santos
$428 Vol.
1%
Zema
$416 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$355 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$367 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$390 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$449 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$580 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$580 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$475 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader pricing for first place in the Amazonas first round of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election at 88.5 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 10.5 percent and a long list of other declared or potential candidates at 1 percent or below. Multiple state-level surveys conducted in July and August 2026 show Lula ahead by roughly nine points in stimulated scenarios, with stronger support in the interior offsetting more competitive numbers in Manaus. Recent polling trends, Lula’s emphasis on regional development projects, and the political resonance of the offshore oil discovery along the equatorial margin have reinforced his position in the state’s 2.8 million voter electorate. Flávio Bolsonaro remains the main alternative in right-leaning segments, yet current aggregates leave limited room for him to close the gap before election day. Traders therefore assign the overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first in Amazonas while treating the remaining field as distant long shots.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,316End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader pricing for first place in the Amazonas first round of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election at 88.5 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 10.5 percent and a long list of other declared or potential candidates at 1 percent or below. Multiple state-level surveys conducted in July and August 2026 show Lula ahead by roughly nine points in stimulated scenarios, with stronger support in the interior offsetting more competitive numbers in Manaus. Recent polling trends, Lula’s emphasis on regional development projects, and the political resonance of the offshore oil discovery along the equatorial margin have reinforced his position in the state’s 2.8 million voter electorate. Flávio Bolsonaro remains the main alternative in right-leaning segments, yet current aggregates leave limited room for him to close the gap before election day. Traders therefore assign the overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first in Amazonas while treating the remaining field as distant long shots.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,316End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads trader pricing for first place in the Amazonas first round of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election at 88.5 percent, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 10.5 percent and a long list of other declared or potential candidates at 1 percent or below. Multiple state-level surveys conducted in July and August 2026 show Lula ahead by roughly nine points in stimulated scenarios, with stronger support in the interior offsetting more competitive numbers in Manaus. Recent polling trends, Lula’s emphasis on regional development projects, and the political resonance of the offshore oil discovery along the equatorial margin have reinforced his position in the state’s 2.8 million voter electorate. Flávio Bolsonaro remains the main alternative in right-leaning segments, yet current aggregates leave limited room for him to close the gap before election day. Traders therefore assign the overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first in Amazonas while treating the remaining field as distant long shots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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