Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes consistently leading overall Senate intentions in Ceará at 23-27%, positioning him strongly for first place, while Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins compete closely for the second seat with consolidated figures around 16-22% and 9-15% respectively. This dynamic sustains the tight market for second place, with Wagner holding a modest edge consistent with trader pricing. Key factors include party alignments—Wagner with opposition União Brasil, Lins with Rede, and Gomes tied to the state government base—alongside high undecided shares and rejection levels that limit separation. Late-campaign events such as alliances, turnout shifts in key regions, or further surveys before the October vote could widen gaps among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Wagner 44%
Cid Gomes 31%
Luizianne 26%
Reginaldo 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
44%
Cid Gomes
31%
Luizianne
26%
Reginaldo
3%
Catarina Matos
2%
Alcides Fernandes
1%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Capitão Wagner 44%
Cid Gomes 31%
Luizianne 26%
Reginaldo 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$5,381 Vol.
44%
Cid Gomes
$716 Vol.
31%
Luizianne
$1,188 Vol.
26%
Reginaldo
$374 Vol.
3%
Catarina Matos
$869 Vol.
2%
Alcides Fernandes
$241 Vol.
1%
Lino Alves
$328 Vol.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$179 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes consistently leading overall Senate intentions in Ceará at 23-27%, positioning him strongly for first place, while Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins compete closely for the second seat with consolidated figures around 16-22% and 9-15% respectively. This dynamic sustains the tight market for second place, with Wagner holding a modest edge consistent with trader pricing. Key factors include party alignments—Wagner with opposition União Brasil, Lins with Rede, and Gomes tied to the state government base—alongside high undecided shares and rejection levels that limit separation. Late-campaign events such as alliances, turnout shifts in key regions, or further surveys before the October vote could widen gaps among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes consistently leading overall Senate intentions in Ceará at 23-27%, positioning him strongly for first place, while Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins compete closely for the second seat with consolidated figures around 16-22% and 9-15% respectively. This dynamic sustains the tight market for second place, with Wagner holding a modest edge consistent with trader pricing. Key factors include party alignments—Wagner with opposition União Brasil, Lins with Rede, and Gomes tied to the state government base—alongside high undecided shares and rejection levels that limit separation. Late-campaign events such as alliances, turnout shifts in key regions, or further surveys before the October vote could widen gaps among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,277End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes consistently leading overall Senate intentions in Ceará at 23-27%, positioning him strongly for first place, while Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins compete closely for the second seat with consolidated figures around 16-22% and 9-15% respectively. This dynamic sustains the tight market for second place, with Wagner holding a modest edge consistent with trader pricing. Key factors include party alignments—Wagner with opposition União Brasil, Lins with Rede, and Gomes tied to the state government base—alongside high undecided shares and rejection levels that limit separation. Late-campaign events such as alliances, turnout shifts in key regions, or further surveys before the October vote could widen gaps among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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