Teresa Surita (MDB), the former Boa Vista mayor, leads the Roraima Senate race for first place with trader consensus around 61% implied probability, driven by her deep local roots and party backing in a crowded field of more than a dozen candidates contesting the October 4, 2026, election for two seats. Recent party conventions confirmed her candidacy in early August, though alliance tensions with Governor Soldado Sampaio—who endorsed rivals including Pastor Isamar and Helena da Asatur—have introduced some uncertainty. Helio Bolsonaro (PL), at roughly 26%, represents the strongest challenger after transferring registration in July to leverage national brand recognition, yet faces headwinds from vote fragmentation and incumbency advantages favoring established regional figures like Chico Rodrigues. The market's pricing reflects these local dynamics over external endorsements in the low-volume contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTeresa Surita 62%
Helio Bolsonaro 26%
Nicoletti 3.6%
Chico Rodrigues 1.6%
$17,066 Vol.
$17,066 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Teresa Surita
62%
Helio Bolsonaro
26%
Nicoletti
4%
Chico Rodrigues
2%
Rogério Miranda
1%
Márcio Junqueira
1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
1%
Mario Rocha
1%
Helena da Asatur
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Teresa Surita 62%
Helio Bolsonaro 26%
Nicoletti 3.6%
Chico Rodrigues 1.6%
$17,066 Vol.
$17,066 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Teresa Surita
$7,199 Vol.
62%
Helio Bolsonaro
$3,282 Vol.
26%
Nicoletti
$2,552 Vol.
4%
Chico Rodrigues
$524 Vol.
2%
Rogério Miranda
$520 Vol.
1%
Márcio Junqueira
$354 Vol.
1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$340 Vol.
1%
Mario Rocha
$339 Vol.
1%
Helena da Asatur
$363 Vol.
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
$412 Vol.
<1%
Hilton Xavier
$404 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Isamar
$393 Vol.
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
$384 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Teresa Surita (MDB), the former Boa Vista mayor, leads the Roraima Senate race for first place with trader consensus around 61% implied probability, driven by her deep local roots and party backing in a crowded field of more than a dozen candidates contesting the October 4, 2026, election for two seats. Recent party conventions confirmed her candidacy in early August, though alliance tensions with Governor Soldado Sampaio—who endorsed rivals including Pastor Isamar and Helena da Asatur—have introduced some uncertainty. Helio Bolsonaro (PL), at roughly 26%, represents the strongest challenger after transferring registration in July to leverage national brand recognition, yet faces headwinds from vote fragmentation and incumbency advantages favoring established regional figures like Chico Rodrigues. The market's pricing reflects these local dynamics over external endorsements in the low-volume contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Volume
$17,066End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Teresa Surita (MDB), the former Boa Vista mayor, leads the Roraima Senate race for first place with trader consensus around 61% implied probability, driven by her deep local roots and party backing in a crowded field of more than a dozen candidates contesting the October 4, 2026, election for two seats. Recent party conventions confirmed her candidacy in early August, though alliance tensions with Governor Soldado Sampaio—who endorsed rivals including Pastor Isamar and Helena da Asatur—have introduced some uncertainty. Helio Bolsonaro (PL), at roughly 26%, represents the strongest challenger after transferring registration in July to leverage national brand recognition, yet faces headwinds from vote fragmentation and incumbency advantages favoring established regional figures like Chico Rodrigues. The market's pricing reflects these local dynamics over external endorsements in the low-volume contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,066End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Teresa Surita (MDB), the former Boa Vista mayor, leads the Roraima Senate race for first place with trader consensus around 61% implied probability, driven by her deep local roots and party backing in a crowded field of more than a dozen candidates contesting the October 4, 2026, election for two seats. Recent party conventions confirmed her candidacy in early August, though alliance tensions with Governor Soldado Sampaio—who endorsed rivals including Pastor Isamar and Helena da Asatur—have introduced some uncertainty. Helio Bolsonaro (PL), at roughly 26%, represents the strongest challenger after transferring registration in July to leverage national brand recognition, yet faces headwinds from vote fragmentation and incumbency advantages favoring established regional figures like Chico Rodrigues. The market's pricing reflects these local dynamics over external endorsements in the low-volume contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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