**Sergio Meneguelli leads trader consensus for second place in the Espírito Santo Senate race at 39%, ahead of incumbent Fabiano Contarato at 21% and Rose de Freitas at 17%, reflecting recent polling patterns.** Multiple July 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24-32% while the second seat remains fragmented. Meneguelli (PSD) posts strong showings around 17% in scenarios without Paulo Hartung, with de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Contarato clustered lower amid high undecided rates (14-18%) and blank/null votes. The two-seat structure, late-stage party conventions, and shifting alliances for the concurrent gubernatorial contest keep probabilities fluid. Fresh polling, formal candidate registrations, or coalition realignments before the October 4 first round could widen gaps among the mid-tier contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 40%
Fabiano Contarato 21.7%
Rose de Freitas 14.9%
Maguinha Malta 7.9%
$17,808 Vol.
$17,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
40%
Fabiano Contarato
22%
Rose de Freitas
15%
Maguinha Malta
8%
Renato Casagrande
3%
Evair de Melo
3%
Callegari
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Marcos do Val
1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 40%
Fabiano Contarato 21.7%
Rose de Freitas 14.9%
Maguinha Malta 7.9%
$17,808 Vol.
$17,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$12,438 Vol.
40%
Fabiano Contarato
$2,496 Vol.
22%
Rose de Freitas
$756 Vol.
15%
Maguinha Malta
$319 Vol.
8%
Renato Casagrande
$229 Vol.
3%
Evair de Melo
$371 Vol.
3%
Callegari
$398 Vol.
2%
Leonardo Monjardim
$258 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$205 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$139 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$201 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Sergio Meneguelli leads trader consensus for second place in the Espírito Santo Senate race at 39%, ahead of incumbent Fabiano Contarato at 21% and Rose de Freitas at 17%, reflecting recent polling patterns.** Multiple July 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24-32% while the second seat remains fragmented. Meneguelli (PSD) posts strong showings around 17% in scenarios without Paulo Hartung, with de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Contarato clustered lower amid high undecided rates (14-18%) and blank/null votes. The two-seat structure, late-stage party conventions, and shifting alliances for the concurrent gubernatorial contest keep probabilities fluid. Fresh polling, formal candidate registrations, or coalition realignments before the October 4 first round could widen gaps among the mid-tier contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Sergio Meneguelli leads trader consensus for second place in the Espírito Santo Senate race at 39%, ahead of incumbent Fabiano Contarato at 21% and Rose de Freitas at 17%, reflecting recent polling patterns.** Multiple July 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24-32% while the second seat remains fragmented. Meneguelli (PSD) posts strong showings around 17% in scenarios without Paulo Hartung, with de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Contarato clustered lower amid high undecided rates (14-18%) and blank/null votes. The two-seat structure, late-stage party conventions, and shifting alliances for the concurrent gubernatorial contest keep probabilities fluid. Fresh polling, formal candidate registrations, or coalition realignments before the October 4 first round could widen gaps among the mid-tier contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Sergio Meneguelli leads trader consensus for second place in the Espírito Santo Senate race at 39%, ahead of incumbent Fabiano Contarato at 21% and Rose de Freitas at 17%, reflecting recent polling patterns.** Multiple July 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24-32% while the second seat remains fragmented. Meneguelli (PSD) posts strong showings around 17% in scenarios without Paulo Hartung, with de Freitas, Maguinha Malta, and Contarato clustered lower amid high undecided rates (14-18%) and blank/null votes. The two-seat structure, late-stage party conventions, and shifting alliances for the concurrent gubernatorial contest keep probabilities fluid. Fresh polling, formal candidate registrations, or coalition realignments before the October 4 first round could widen gaps among the mid-tier contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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