Latest model runs from global ensembles show a strengthening northerly flow over the Yellow Sea, drawing cooler maritime air toward Qingdao and moderating the expected overnight minimum on August 26. Coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–25 °C and high boundary-layer moisture are limiting daytime heating while favoring radiative cooling under clearing skies after any early showers, keeping the most probable low in the 22–26 °C range. Ensemble spread remains moderate, with a subset of members indicating greater advection of continental air that could push readings to 22 °C or below, supporting the current 43 % market-implied probability for that bin. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF is expected within the next 12 hours and will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on August 26?
22°C or below 86%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
24°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
86%
23°C
22%
24°C
27%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
22%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
10%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
1%
22°C or below 86%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
24°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$30 Vol.
86%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$5 Vol.
49%
29°C
$5 Vol.
49%
30°C
$135 Vol.
10%
31°C
$135 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$75 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model runs from global ensembles show a strengthening northerly flow over the Yellow Sea, drawing cooler maritime air toward Qingdao and moderating the expected overnight minimum on August 26. Coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–25 °C and high boundary-layer moisture are limiting daytime heating while favoring radiative cooling under clearing skies after any early showers, keeping the most probable low in the 22–26 °C range. Ensemble spread remains moderate, with a subset of members indicating greater advection of continental air that could push readings to 22 °C or below, supporting the current 43 % market-implied probability for that bin. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF is expected within the next 12 hours and will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$385End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model runs from global ensembles show a strengthening northerly flow over the Yellow Sea, drawing cooler maritime air toward Qingdao and moderating the expected overnight minimum on August 26. Coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–25 °C and high boundary-layer moisture are limiting daytime heating while favoring radiative cooling under clearing skies after any early showers, keeping the most probable low in the 22–26 °C range. Ensemble spread remains moderate, with a subset of members indicating greater advection of continental air that could push readings to 22 °C or below, supporting the current 43 % market-implied probability for that bin. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF is expected within the next 12 hours and will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$385End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest model runs from global ensembles show a strengthening northerly flow over the Yellow Sea, drawing cooler maritime air toward Qingdao and moderating the expected overnight minimum on August 26. Coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–25 °C and high boundary-layer moisture are limiting daytime heating while favoring radiative cooling under clearing skies after any early showers, keeping the most probable low in the 22–26 °C range. Ensemble spread remains moderate, with a subset of members indicating greater advection of continental air that could push readings to 22 °C or below, supporting the current 43 % market-implied probability for that bin. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF is expected within the next 12 hours and will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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