Recent seismic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.7 offshore Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, has kept trader focus on the potential for an 8.0+ event before September 30, according to USGS records. Worldwide, roughly 15–20 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur annually, with magnitude 8.0+ events far rarer and typically tied to subduction zones; the year's strongest so far reached 7.8 in the Philippines during June. USGS monitoring shows ongoing aftershocks and background seismicity but no short-term predictive capability, while model consensus emphasizes probabilistic assessment over deterministic forecasts. Continued real-time data releases from the USGS and global networks through late September will inform whether activity escalates toward higher-magnitude thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
6.5+
100%
7.0+
77%
7.5+
38%
8.0+
7%
8.5+
7%
9.0+
4%
$6,239 Vol.
6.5+
$1,745 Vol.
100%
7.0+
$1,890 Vol.
77%
7.5+
$946 Vol.
38%
8.0+
$1,653 Vol.
7%
8.5+
$5 Vol.
7%
9.0+
$0 Vol.
4%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.7 offshore Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, has kept trader focus on the potential for an 8.0+ event before September 30, according to USGS records. Worldwide, roughly 15–20 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur annually, with magnitude 8.0+ events far rarer and typically tied to subduction zones; the year's strongest so far reached 7.8 in the Philippines during June. USGS monitoring shows ongoing aftershocks and background seismicity but no short-term predictive capability, while model consensus emphasizes probabilistic assessment over deterministic forecasts. Continued real-time data releases from the USGS and global networks through late September will inform whether activity escalates toward higher-magnitude thresholds.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$6,239End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.7 offshore Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, has kept trader focus on the potential for an 8.0+ event before September 30, according to USGS records. Worldwide, roughly 15–20 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur annually, with magnitude 8.0+ events far rarer and typically tied to subduction zones; the year's strongest so far reached 7.8 in the Philippines during June. USGS monitoring shows ongoing aftershocks and background seismicity but no short-term predictive capability, while model consensus emphasizes probabilistic assessment over deterministic forecasts. Continued real-time data releases from the USGS and global networks through late September will inform whether activity escalates toward higher-magnitude thresholds.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$6,239End Date
Oct 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.7 offshore Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 in Colombia on August 10, has kept trader focus on the potential for an 8.0+ event before September 30, according to USGS records. Worldwide, roughly 15–20 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur annually, with magnitude 8.0+ events far rarer and typically tied to subduction zones; the year's strongest so far reached 7.8 in the Philippines during June. USGS monitoring shows ongoing aftershocks and background seismicity but no short-term predictive capability, while model consensus emphasizes probabilistic assessment over deterministic forecasts. Continued real-time data releases from the USGS and global networks through late September will inform whether activity escalates toward higher-magnitude thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions