Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads trader expectations for first place in the Distrito Federal Senate race due to consistent polling advantages and high name recognition. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) gave her 25% support for the two Senate seats up for election on October 4, ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%, with 18% undecided. Her official registration in mid-August followed resolution of internal PL tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders appear to price in her frontrunner status while accounting for the race’s volatility, large undecided share, and the fact that voters select two distinct candidates. Lower-probability names such as Professor Guilherme Amorim and others trail far behind in both surveys and implied market odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 70%
Leila do Vôlei 27%
Erika Kokay 13.7%
Bia Kicis 1.4%
$17,073 Vol.
$17,073 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
70%
Leila do Vôlei
27%
Erika Kokay
15%
Bia Kicis
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 70%
Leila do Vôlei 27%
Erika Kokay 13.7%
Bia Kicis 1.4%
$17,073 Vol.
$17,073 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$6,132 Vol.
70%
Leila do Vôlei
$2,471 Vol.
27%
Erika Kokay
$1,268 Vol.
15%
Bia Kicis
$2,782 Vol.
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$603 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$458 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$479 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$491 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$470 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$542 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$510 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads trader expectations for first place in the Distrito Federal Senate race due to consistent polling advantages and high name recognition. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) gave her 25% support for the two Senate seats up for election on October 4, ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%, with 18% undecided. Her official registration in mid-August followed resolution of internal PL tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders appear to price in her frontrunner status while accounting for the race’s volatility, large undecided share, and the fact that voters select two distinct candidates. Lower-probability names such as Professor Guilherme Amorim and others trail far behind in both surveys and implied market odds.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$17,073End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads trader expectations for first place in the Distrito Federal Senate race due to consistent polling advantages and high name recognition. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) gave her 25% support for the two Senate seats up for election on October 4, ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%, with 18% undecided. Her official registration in mid-August followed resolution of internal PL tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders appear to price in her frontrunner status while accounting for the race’s volatility, large undecided share, and the fact that voters select two distinct candidates. Lower-probability names such as Professor Guilherme Amorim and others trail far behind in both surveys and implied market odds.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,073End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads trader expectations for first place in the Distrito Federal Senate race due to consistent polling advantages and high name recognition. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) gave her 25% support for the two Senate seats up for election on October 4, ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9%, with 18% undecided. Her official registration in mid-August followed resolution of internal PL tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders appear to price in her frontrunner status while accounting for the race’s volatility, large undecided share, and the fact that voters select two distinct candidates. Lower-probability names such as Professor Guilherme Amorim and others trail far behind in both surveys and implied market odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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