Daniel Vilela, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in March 2026 following Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in the Goiás gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 20 points or more in recent surveys and approval ratings near 75%. Traders price his re-election probability above 97% based on the structural benefits of incumbency, continuity with the prior administration’s policy framework, and fragmented opposition including Marconi Perillo and Wilder Morais. Upcoming campaign events, primary consolidation among challengers, or shifts in state economic indicators before the October 4 vote could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited momentum for alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDaniel Vilela 97.2%
Marconi Perillo 1.5%
Wilder Morais 1.3%
Vanderlan Cardoso <1%
$29,252 Vol.
$29,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Daniel Vilela
97%
Marconi Perillo
2%
Wilder Morais
1%
Vanderlan Cardoso
1%
Adriana Accorsi
<1%
Daniel Vilela 97.2%
Marconi Perillo 1.5%
Wilder Morais 1.3%
Vanderlan Cardoso <1%
$29,252 Vol.
$29,252 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Daniel Vilela
$25,426 Vol.
97%
Marconi Perillo
$820 Vol.
2%
Wilder Morais
$1,037 Vol.
1%
Vanderlan Cardoso
$1,106 Vol.
1%
Adriana Accorsi
$863 Vol.
<1%
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Daniel Vilela, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in March 2026 following Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in the Goiás gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 20 points or more in recent surveys and approval ratings near 75%. Traders price his re-election probability above 97% based on the structural benefits of incumbency, continuity with the prior administration’s policy framework, and fragmented opposition including Marconi Perillo and Wilder Morais. Upcoming campaign events, primary consolidation among challengers, or shifts in state economic indicators before the October 4 vote could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited momentum for alternatives.
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$29,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Daniel Vilela, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in March 2026 following Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in the Goiás gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 20 points or more in recent surveys and approval ratings near 75%. Traders price his re-election probability above 97% based on the structural benefits of incumbency, continuity with the prior administration’s policy framework, and fragmented opposition including Marconi Perillo and Wilder Morais. Upcoming campaign events, primary consolidation among challengers, or shifts in state economic indicators before the October 4 vote could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited momentum for alternatives.
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,252End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Daniel Vilela, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in March 2026 following Ronaldo Caiado’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in the Goiás gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages of 20 points or more in recent surveys and approval ratings near 75%. Traders price his re-election probability above 97% based on the structural benefits of incumbency, continuity with the prior administration’s policy framework, and fragmented opposition including Marconi Perillo and Wilder Morais. Upcoming campaign events, primary consolidation among challengers, or shifts in state economic indicators before the October 4 vote could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited momentum for alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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