Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80.5% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia’s Senate race, driven by consistent leads in late-August polling. A Paraná Pesquisas survey (Aug 23-25) placed him at 43.5% in a multi-vote scenario, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 32.2%, with João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) statistically tied around 25-26%. Earlier Quaest data showed similar PT dominance despite high undecided shares. Traders appear to weigh Rui Costa’s incumbency advantages as former governor and ex-minister, the state’s PT base, and limited recent shifts in support, while lower probabilities for rivals reflect weaker polling and coalition dynamics ahead of the October vote for the two Senate seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 81%
Jaques Wagner 11.5%
João Roma 7.0%
Angelo Coronel 1.1%
$19,712 Vol.
$19,712 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
81%
Jaques Wagner
12%
João Roma
7%
Angelo Coronel
1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 81%
Jaques Wagner 11.5%
João Roma 7.0%
Angelo Coronel 1.1%
$19,712 Vol.
$19,712 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$6,623 Vol.
81%
Jaques Wagner
$4,431 Vol.
12%
João Roma
$2,753 Vol.
7%
Angelo Coronel
$1,570 Vol.
1%
Marcelo Millet
$729 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80.5% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia’s Senate race, driven by consistent leads in late-August polling. A Paraná Pesquisas survey (Aug 23-25) placed him at 43.5% in a multi-vote scenario, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 32.2%, with João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) statistically tied around 25-26%. Earlier Quaest data showed similar PT dominance despite high undecided shares. Traders appear to weigh Rui Costa’s incumbency advantages as former governor and ex-minister, the state’s PT base, and limited recent shifts in support, while lower probabilities for rivals reflect weaker polling and coalition dynamics ahead of the October vote for the two Senate seats.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$19,712End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80.5% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia’s Senate race, driven by consistent leads in late-August polling. A Paraná Pesquisas survey (Aug 23-25) placed him at 43.5% in a multi-vote scenario, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 32.2%, with João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) statistically tied around 25-26%. Earlier Quaest data showed similar PT dominance despite high undecided shares. Traders appear to weigh Rui Costa’s incumbency advantages as former governor and ex-minister, the state’s PT base, and limited recent shifts in support, while lower probabilities for rivals reflect weaker polling and coalition dynamics ahead of the October vote for the two Senate seats.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,712End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80.5% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia’s Senate race, driven by consistent leads in late-August polling. A Paraná Pesquisas survey (Aug 23-25) placed him at 43.5% in a multi-vote scenario, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 32.2%, with João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) statistically tied around 25-26%. Earlier Quaest data showed similar PT dominance despite high undecided shares. Traders appear to weigh Rui Costa’s incumbency advantages as former governor and ex-minister, the state’s PT base, and limited recent shifts in support, while lower probabilities for rivals reflect weaker polling and coalition dynamics ahead of the October vote for the two Senate seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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